Today's Polls: T-15 [TNR not gleeful now]

It's been a confusing day of polling -- one of those where I'm happy to have a computer handy to do my dirty work for me.

The trend over the past 7-10 days remains slightly toward McCain. It is difficult to pinpoint, however, just where the movement started. If I take the average of my daily point estimates from Thursday through Sunday -- since the final presidential debate was concluded -- I show Obama at a +6.0. That compares with a +6.6 in the ten days that proceeded the debate. However, looking at things even more precisely, it appears that the movement may have preceded the debate by a day or two, and that the debate itself was something of a wash.

It is also not clear whether Colin Powell's endorsement has had any effect. Obama gained ground in four of the seven national trackers today, lost ground in two, and the last one was a push (this does not include the brand new ABC/WaPo tracker, which debuted today).

The central point is this: if McCain has gained ground -- and most likely he has -- then what he's done is reset the race to roughly where it was two weeks ago, when Obama also had roughly a 6-point national lead. Except, the two positions aren't entirely equal, since two weeks have run off McCain's clock. Roughly speaking -- and accounting for his inferior position in the electoral college -- McCain needs to gain about half a point per day every day between now and November 4 to become a favorite in the electoral college. That is not an easy task; from the nadir of Obama's numbers, which we put at 9/12, to his peak, which we put at 10/11, Obama was gaining about a quarter of a point per day on average. That is, by the standards of a presidential campaign, very rapid movement. But McCain needs to get those numbers down about twice as quickly as Obama got them up, and he does not have any debates or other major public events to assist him.

McCain also has significant problems with his electoral map, particularly in Virginia and Colorado, which continue to project about a point or so ahead of Obama's national numbers. While McCain appears to have stopped the bleeding in Florida and perhaps Ohio, that is not the case in Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina, which have drifted closer to the national averages.

If McCain were to make a kamikaze play for Pennsylvania -- as John King seems to imply -- while conceding Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, this wouldn't seem to make his task any easier. The Kerry states less PA, but plus CO, IA, and NM, equal 252 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 18 votes shy of a majority. Obama could pick up those votes in one fell swoop by winning Florida or Ohio -- or, more plausibly, by winning Virginia plus any one of North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana or Nevada.

It is unlikely that McCain can accomplish this all of this organically, by winning garden-variety news cycles or even by claiming the lion's share of undecideds. Rather, he likely needs some kind of unknown, external contingency to place himself back in the thick of the race.

They are not as gleeful at The New Republic as they were a week ago. The ABC/WaPost poll that is mentioned is total BS I like the author of this TNR blog post, though. He tries to be honest about the polls, as far as I can tell, although he doesn't take into account the absurd weighing in most in favor of the dems.

I'm working hard trying to turn California into the Red Column.

Obama is out of whack till Saturday. Let’s pray for his grandmother a quick recovery but let us also pray that McCain will not suspend his campaign again. Sorry I can’t help worrying. McCain does have a trend in his favor it is not yet strong but he is improving across the board.

3 posted on 10/20/2008 6:11:30 PM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "Give me liberty or give me a government check!")

Geezus, I could just see McCain agreeing to suspend his own campaign out of “respect” for Granny.

4 posted on 10/20/2008 6:14:01 PM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)

McCain is an idiot. And he has no fire in the belly. He is a stinking embarrassment IMO. He could/should have BO on the defensive on a whole slew of points. What is this, dumb ass rope-a-dope?

Vote for me because I’m not a lying socialist? Hell of a campaign. Half of the votes for JM will be one handed because we are holding our noses with the other.

5 posted on 10/20/2008 6:17:45 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s........you weren't really there)

Why are they worried? According to the media polls Jeremiah Wright apprentice is going to get the largest percentage of popular vote any democrat got since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. America is going to give the black racist and left wing socialist more % of popular vote than all these whites democrats: John Kennedy, Hebert Humphrey, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter twice, Walter Mondale, Bill Clinton twice, Al Gore, and John Kerry. Isn't he amazing this black racist? (extreme sarcasm).

McCain ... has no fire in the belly.

Hey! I call foul! Don't you know that that expression is reserved exclusively for Fred Thompson???

Obama is out of whack till Saturday. Let’s pray for his grandmother a quick recovery

Hadn't heard. Is he suspending his campaign due to an illness?

According to another thread, he’s flying either to Hawaii or Hawai’i to visit his sick grandmother.

However, looking at things even more precisely, it appears that the movement may have preceded the debate by a day or two, and that the debate itself was something of a wash.

Jow the Plumber happened two days before the debate and really broke open the day before.

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