Ping
I have to be honest: Good News/Bad News.
1.) We’re screwed in many Senate races, even if turnout gap is better for us (as I assume) than the pollsters expect. We can still hold NC, AK, and a few others, but I expect Dems to add four seats.
2.) We have maybe five real shots at House pickups, IMHO. A small loss of 9-10 net is likely.
3.) McCain is in far better shape than the loony polls are suggesting. Even with Rasmussen’s weird, insanely Pro-Democrat state numbers, McCain leads in Oh and FL. I think Obama is in FL for three days precisely because FL is coming home point by point to McCain.
4.) Every Pennsylvania poll, when corrected for realistic turnout numbers, shows McCain barely ahead. Pretty much every damn one of them. NH is looking the same way now with corrected (realistic) numbers.
It comes down to this: Unless Obama single-handedly has changed the electoral world; unless the Democrats really do experience a massive, unprecedented, illogical, enormous turnout ID gap never before seen and nearly double any previous record in our lifetime - unless this happens, this unlikely HUGE Democrat turnout gap never, ever before seen - or even anywhere near close to ever seen - on election Day, McCain likely will pull this off at the state level.
I give McCain now a 55%-60% chance of victory, and Dems a 75% chance of picking up 4-5 senate seats and 9-10 House seats.
The turnout gap - and I am more and more convinced of this - is not going to be the 6.7%-14% that these insane pollsters are working with. And the youth vote will not dominate any more than it did in 2004 - you simply cannot tell me that they adore Obama more than they hated Bush in 2004. It’s not true - they hated Bush more.
The turnout gap will be likely 2% IMHO, and no worse than 4%. If that’s true, McCain wins this election, period.