Just by way of explanation for my interest in the subject: aside from the existential fear of a radical socialist like Obama coming to power, I have a degree in Political Science from Colgate University and wrote my thesis on the efficacy of polling methodologies across diverse populations.
I'm not a poli sci major, but I've done some light graduate work on surveys and random sampling. (Plus a ton of reading on the topic in my later years.) You undoubtedly realize that every poll (or survey in general) starts with a set of assumptions. Almost every pollster I've read or heard readily admits they expect huge Democratic numbers this year. I think this assumption is skewing their results. Between false ACORN registrations and, to a lesser extent, Operation Chaos, and just overestimating the impact of unreliable young voters (nothing new), I think they're expecting an unprecedented (in recent Presidential elections) Dem advantage of +5 to +8. Some polls even higher than that!
They expected a strong Dem turnout in 2004, and they were right. John Kerry got the second most number of votes EVER for a Presidential candidate.
What they completely missed was the powerful amount of anger built up by conservatives, anger that resulted in an unprecedented turnout. (final turnout percentages acc to exit polls were 37% GOP, 37% Dems) They were angry at the media for completely ignoring Kerry's many flaws and anti-Americanism, while still pretty supportive of the President.
I'm seeing the same thing in play this year. Even more anger, perhaps, given the complete fawning over a lightweight Socialist with significant ties to terrorists and racists (including his wife). While the support for McCain is not as strong IMHO, I think the Palin selection meets or exceeds the Bush enthusiasm levels. (based on anecdotal evidence rather than real data) Only time will tell if I'm right.
I personally thought the polls were fairly accurate back in 2004. This year their differential numbers are unprecedented (judging by recent history), and therefore (to me) quite unrealistic. Not impossible. Obama could win big. I just really don't think so. I expect turnout percentage to be within a point (+1) either way. And if that's the case, McCain's gonna win rather comfortably in my view.
At this stage the key is the undecideds and how that shrinks and changes the results. The conventional wisdom is that a fairly significant percentage of voters lock-in within 72 hours of an election. I see the undecideds breaking 2/3 for McCain.
hey andy.
FR is in a shoot the messenger mood...which is historically not a good sign around here.
we are a fickle peoples, if the polls are down they all suck and are run by Move On.org
if they are up then they are good as gold.
you are right that some of them are crap and some are not
the final polls will tell the story but that can be overturned by high GOP turnout
what worries me more is how much more money Obama has to spend on TV in key states right now than we do.
wish some GOP billionaires would step up like Obama’s have....
by the way...Campaign Finance Reform was supported by many here....they won’t admit it now....they were so sure that if Bush signed it for publicity sake that SCOTUS would nuke it.
they were wrong and the GOP never gets shite credit for any reach across the aisle legislation...ever.