Is there a thread on this crazy new poll
As the race for the White House enters its final days, the Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states.
The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.
Those states were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and last month the Big Ten Battleground Poll showed a tight race in all of those states but Illinois, which Obama represents in the U.S. Senate. The first poll was taken just as the U.S. financial crisis first intensified and before the massive decline in the stock market, when McCain was enjoying his highest poll numbers of the campaign in the Big Ten and nationally.
“In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground,” said Franklin, co-developer of Pollster.com. “Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”
The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.
Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%
The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.
“With the fundamental factors so to their advantage, this election was always about Barack Obama and the Democrats reaching a threshold level of credibility with voters,” said Goldstein, a UW-Madison political science professor. “It appears Obama has and this race has popped nationally and here in the Big Ten.”
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%
Well, I won’t speak to IL, IA and MI, as I think the numbers that are offered there are grossly off the finals, but Fauxbama will almost certainly take them at the end of the day. IA clearly isn’t going to come to its senses and will continue to put free money from the gubment ahead of sound leadership, and MI may turn up a suprise, but as I’m not on the ground there, can’t say. It could be the other rust belt state that will flip other than PA, but, won’t argue it other than it won’t go Fauxbama by anywhere near the 22 points this poll claims.
As to the rest, IN is going McCain solidly, claiming otherwise is laughable. MN may or may not flip, but it certainly won’t go to Fauxbama by 19. OH? Please, its solidly R, the only chance it has of flipping is voter fraud, (and I don’t think it will) and then it would only be the smallest of margins. WI by 13? No way in hell, honestly I think WI is probably the most likely of the other rust belt states to flip with PA this year.. it may not, but it certainly won’t go Fauxbama by more than a slim margin.
I don’t know who published this poll but they CLEARLY are out there smoking some pretty good stuff if they expect anyone to take this seriously. This is either a complete propoganda piece (likely) or the methodology is so bad, that I’d suspect it was a bunch of grad students trying some new math out with this poll, its not remotely credible at all.