I just gave you guys a a chart and data that Bush was never behind in more than TWO of FIFTEEN polls at any given time in 2004 after mid August.
This year is nothing like that....so far.
It’s more like 2000 actually and McCain is Gore.
However, every election is so different so who knows but when folks cherry pick a poll here and there from 2004 and claimed “see I told you so how they all lied in 2004 too” is just as misleading as some of these polls we are dealing with today may be.
What to do today is probably to toss the extremes and average the middles...which still puts Mac down a bit but not insurmountable if they continue to tighten and GOP turnout is high
but....a big but, if contributions to GOP are indicative of turnout then this is going to be a long night.
these are just the facts but I agree that most polls this year are more heavily political
I would like to see a chart on the internals from 2004 being less Dem weighted than now as you claim. As I recall most polls I’ve seen all my life are Dem weighed...as is the elctorate in most places outside of Utah and Alaska
*are u in Nashville?...what do you think about here compared to in the past....yard sign wise and bumperstickers
But I gotta tell you - in Iowa - where McCain was never expected to do anything because of his anti-Ethanol-subsidies stance, things are looking good.
McCain was never supposed to compete in the primaries in Iowa, but finished a strong third. He has a lot of quiet support in Iowa.
He has several visit planned there in the last 12 days, and I do not blame him. The anecdotal evidence I'm hearing backs up the IA GOP claims of a dead heat. A short while ago, I would have said McCain was dead in Iowa and the subsidies killed any chance; but that appears not to be the case.
There is a lot of groundswell for McCain in Iowa. Signs EVERYWHERE, and I mean EVERYWHERE.
McCain just might - might - pull off Iowa.
I do, however, think we need to prepare for the idea that McCain may win the Electoral College while losing the national vote by up to two full percentage points. It is a very real possibility.