(Parental Notification Law): Prop. 4 polls show slight lead with strong Latino support

www.the-tidings.com ^ | October 24, 2008 | Paula Doyle

[Publius804]

Prop. 4 polls show slight lead with strong Latino support

By Paula Doyle

Two recent polls indicating a slim majority of California voters favor a statewide ballot initiative requiring greater parental notification before teenagers have abortions also highlight the measure's strong support from Latinos and growing approval from women and Democrats.

A Survey USA election poll conducted in early October found that 52 percent of Californians intend to vote for Proposition 4, also known as "Sarah's Law," requiring parental or close adult family member notification 48 hours prior to the termination of a minor's pregnancy. A Field Poll released Sept. 26 indicated that 49 percent of California voters favor Prop. 4, while 41 percent oppose it and 10 percent remain undecided.

"What this election will come down to for Prop. 4 is the undecided vote among two groups: Latinos and Independent/Democrat white women voters," said Charles Gallagher, chief strategist and campaign manager for Prop. 4.

Latinos in the September Field Poll appeared to be favoring the measure 62 percent to 31 percent, a 31-point margin. In 2006, the second consecutive year in which a similar parental notification initiative failed at the California polls, the margin among Latinos was 22 percentage points, according to Field Poll officials.

The Survey USA poll showed Democratic support (38 percent) and women's support (52 percent) for Prop. 4 increased since 2006, when polls found only 33 percent of Democrat voters and 44 percent of women supported a parental notification ballot measure. Regionally, support for Prop. 4 is strongest in the Central Valley (60 percent) and the Inland Empire (60 percent), with narrow approval in the greater Los Angeles area (51 percent).

[hout8475]

If we only allowed legal immigration of married Hispanics with children who are here to work and not get on welfare, the Hispanic population might be more receptive to Republicans and conservative principles.

[gieriscm]

I expect Prop 4 will pass. Plenty of people I know who are pro-aborts get really ticked at the thought of a doctor who would perform non-emergency surgery on one of their minor children without parental consent.

[goldstategop]

The Latino and female support will make the difference. Plus this time with large numbers of religious voters turning out to back Prop. 8 - they will also pull the lever for Prop. 4.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus