Double digit lead for Dewey? I don’t think it was that big. Michael Barone recently wrote that Truman was behind something like 5-7 points in the last couple of weeks. Other historians have since said it was not that big of a surprise that Truman won since they were seeing him get bigger and bigger crowds. Dewey seemed to be coasting in the final weeks. One documentary I saw said Dewey even admitted to insiders he knew in the end he would lose.
As for this year, I still hold out hope the good guys will win. But it will take a bit of a miracle. I can’t recall a time when any candidate was behind in every poll and ended up winning. Still, sometimes these things literally change in a final weekend. As I recall at this point in 2002 most pundits thought Republicans would lose Senate seats and maybe lose the House as well. Jeb Bush was in a very tight race in FL. Just in the last few days did the tide seem to turn.
and at the time he wrote it McCain was three weeks out and at 7 average at RCP... McCain is at 7 now if you average most of the polls, but it appears they are way oversampling democrats in these polls.
Latest Zogby just moved Obama from +9 to +3 that is 6 points in one day!