Posted on 10/28/2008 6:43:35 AM PDT by Zakeet
The Texas Secretary of State reports early voting statistics for the counties with the largest population. A quick analysis of their data shows the following trends:
There is a huge increase in Texas’ early voting turnout – about 65 percent – from 1 million at this point in the 2004 election to 1.75 million this year.
After only one week, the early vote stands at 39 percent of State’s entire 2004 election turnout.
The early voting increase is greatest in Houston area – up 110 % compared to 2004.
This is likely due to in part to Hurricane Ike (people voting when they can as they are still cleaning up after the storm). The turmoil in the energy market also probably plays significant role – oil prices are falling and the Democrats are responsible for obstructing domestic oil exploration. The energy industry is a huge part of the Houston economy.Excluding Houston and its Western Suburbs as outliers, early voting is up by:
Despite the much heralded Democratic voter enrollment drives, the number of registered voters hasn't changed much in four years – and has actually increased most in areas carried by Bush in 2004. The SoS reports the following
- 44 percent in counties carried by John Kerry in 2004
- 57 percent in counties where George Bush received 50-60 percent of the vote (primarily Dallas and San Antonio)
- 55 percent in counties where George Bush received more than 60 percent
A summary of the data is posted in the comments below. The raw data can be obtained from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State at the following links:
- Up 6 percent in counties carried by John Kerry in 2004
- Unchanged in the major cities (down 2% in Dallas, unchanged in Houston and up 2% in Houston)
- Up 9 percent in counties where George Bush received more than 60 percent
2004 Early Voting
Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted next week, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.
Enjoy.
Thanks for posting. Very interesting.
Good news, however this IS Texas. This is a state that Republicans shouldn’t even have to watch.
However, if this is an indication of what the turnout will be like in other states, I suppose it is good news.
The Democrats are not going turn out in significantly greater numbers than Republicans! This is McCain/Palin's race to win. I still expect overall voter turnout to be within a point either way.
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 584,949 | 102,516 | 18% |
| El Paso | 371,856 | 48,427 | 13% |
| Hidalgo | 269,811 | 26,535 | 10% |
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 1,231,291 | 164,572 | 13% |
| Harris | 1,937,072 | 171,287 | 9% |
| Bexar | 908,466 | 124,878 | 14% |
| Nueces | 201,707 | 25,471 | 13% |
| Fort Bend | 254,364 | 37,408 | 15% |
| Galveston | 185,911 | 28,845 | 16% |
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 918,656 | 141,672 | 15% |
| Williamson | 200,344 | 35,342 | 18% |
| Denton | 321,700 | 53,289 | 17% |
| Collin | 369,412 | 70,100 | 19% |
| Montgomery | 214,098 | 32,650 | 15% |
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 609,180 | 154,988 | 25% |
| El Paso | 388,643 | 57,433 | 15% |
| Hidalgo | 305,206 | 42,776 | 14% |
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 1,208,151 | 256,683 | 21% |
| Harris | 1,940,356 | 359,613 | 19% |
| Bexar | 930,943 | 209,164 | 22% |
| Nueces | 198,938 | 33,734 | 17% |
| Fort Bend | 299,002 | 81,975 | 27% |
| Galveston | 189,042 | 40,797 | 22% |
| County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 959,499 | 221,216 | 23% |
| Williamson | 231,977 | 55,294 | 24% |
| Denton | 358,525 | 78,598 | 22% |
| Collin | 424,528 | 107,382 | 25% |
| Montgomery | 241,927 | 53,151 | 22% |
| County | Increased EV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Travis | 52,472 | 51%> |
| El Paso | 9,006 | 19% |
| Hidalgo | 16,241 | 61% |
| County | Increased EV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 92,111 | 56% |
| Harris | 188,326 | 110% |
| Bexar | 84,286 | 67% |
| Nueces | 8,263 | 32% |
| Fort Bend | 44,567 | 119% |
| Galveston | 11,952 | 41% |
| County | Increased EV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 79,544 | 56% |
| Williamson | 19,952 | 56% |
| Denton | 25,309 | 47% |
| Collin | 37,282 | 53% |
| Montgomery | 20,501 | 63% |
| County | Increased RV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Travis | 24,231 | 4% |
| El Paso | 16,787 | 5% |
| Hidalgo | 35,395 | 13% |
| County | Increased RV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | -23,140 | -2% |
| Harris | 3,284 | 0% |
| Bexar | 22,477 | 2% |
| Nueces | -2,769 | -1% |
| Fort Bend | 44,638 | 18% |
| Galveston | 3,131 | 2% |
| County | Increased RV | % Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 40,843 | 4% |
| Williamson | 31,633 | 16% |
| Denton | 36,825 | 11% |
| Collin | 55,116 | 15% |
| Montgomery | 27,829 | 13% |
| County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 147,885 | 197,235 | 43% |
| El Paso | 73,261 | 95,142 | 44% |
| Hidalgo | 50,931 | 62,369 | 45% |
| County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 346,246 | 336,641 | 51% |
| Harris | 584,723 | 475,865 | 55% |
| Bexar | 260,698 | 210,976 | 55% |
| Nueces | 59,359 | 44,439 | 57% |
| Fort Bend | 93,625 | 68,722 | 58% |
| Galveston | 61,290 | 43,919 | 58% |
| County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 349,462 | 207,286 | 63% |
| Williamson | 83,284 | 43,117 | 66% |
| Denton | 140,891 | 59,346 | 70% |
| Collin | 174,435 | 68,935 | 72% |
| Montgomery | 104,654 | 28,628 | 79% |
Travis – Austin
El Paso – El Paso
Hidalgo – McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas – Dallas
Harris – Houston
Bexar – San Antonio
Nueces – Corpus Christi
Fort Bend – West Houston
Galveston – Galveston
Tarrant – Fort Worth
Williamson – Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton – Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin – NE of Dallas
Montgomery – North of Houston
Read it again. This time read about the Dem areas vs. the GOP areas.
Sounds good. Even though M-P should easily win TX we will need every vote to get their national popular vote total up. Heaven forbid they fall short there but manage to eke out an electoral college win. Not only would their administration be dogged from day one but I fear what the reaction in the communities would be.
I voted early in a Houston suburb. Had to wait 30 minutes to vote — and this area is the reddest of red.
Turnout should be good for McCain ... at least here in Bush Country.
H
“I’m a Texan (San Antonio) and my family voted for McCain/Palin”.
Given this article and the trends that we are seeing in California, this may be a good sign for republicans.
We have more than our share of yellow dog Democrats--let their dead grandparents think for them---"My daddy and his daddy were Democrats and I'm a Democrat." That's the one I have never understood!
As my mother said, "My daddy was a Democrat, too, but he wouldn't be today."
I am sorry if I am just dumb, but why is this good news?
This is true. But we do have some down ballot Rats that could be in trouble in the Rats don't turnout. You have some seats like Tom Delay’s old seat in the Houston area that has vulnerable Democrat. Also we have a few close races for the State legislature which are vital to keep in the GOP due to redistricting in a few years. I imagine it's just the same in some other safe Red states.
Proud to be from Tarrant County, with over 60% Bush. ;-)
I voted early in an equally red Dallas suburb.
The lines there are an hour and a half long!
Good data and purty pictures - thanks!
The reason this is good news, I think, is that the early voting increased proportionally more in republican-leaning counties than it did for democrat-leaning counties. It’s no surprise that McCain will easily carry Texas, but that’s not the point here. What this shows is that the conservative base is more energized than the liberal base. It would be great if this could be extrapolated to other states, but that remains to be seen.
I’m in the West Texas area. We’ve had amazing turn out here, really busy poling places. My next door neighbors are middle class blacks. She and I talked a few days ago and she made the statement that “blacks don’t vote like most people think”, indicating don’t count on the blacks here to necessarily vote for O. She’s a die-hard conservative as are most of her family
Because GOP areas are voting at higher rates than Dem areas. That will likely help deliver TX-22 (Delay's old seat) back to the Republicans (I hope!!). Plus the overall state vote so far, just like in other states, is not showing a Democrat surge like we were told we would see. This surge is what all these Obama polls are supposedly reflecting. This news is really quite good.
Us Texans are not as stupid as our neigboring states!!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.