Posted on 10/28/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Teacher317
I don't buy that WI is solid Obama. Bush barely lost in 04. Remember angry man from the WI rally? The folks in WI are motivated. Obama -10 for solid 224.
None of the southern states nor Indiana are going to Obama. Bank on it. Thinking that that any of these states will go to Obama is leftist wishful thinking.
FL 27
NC 15
VA 13
MO 11
IN 11
Total = 77
McCain +77. Obama solid 224 (46 to win), McCain solid 240 (30 to win).
Now we have a race.
Let's give Obama NM. Obama 229 (41 to win), McCain 240 (30 to win)
Tossup states:
CO 9
NV 5
NH 4
PA 21
OH 20
WI 10
Game over if McCain takes PA and OH. Game almost but not totally over if Obama wins both. IMO, more likely for McCain than Obama to take both (remember the Dem primaries). Advantage McCain.
If they split OH and PA, McCain has the easier path to victory. Obama would essentially have to run the table in the tossup states to win.
If McCain loses one of the southern states, a win in PA offsets this loss and he's still in the better position.
Unless one assumes that Obama can make very significant gains in the south (not likely), McCain is in a better position.
Welcome to FR. For someone with so much opinion, you sure joined us late. Was DU getting boring?
Oh, I wasn’t offended. I was just trying to direct the thread towards qualitative analysis. Sorry about that wording!
Game actually over if Obama takes both. You gave him NM, leaving him 41 short. OH (20) and PA (21) gives him the exact count necessary, unless Maine splits off one EV.
It's going to be an interesting week next week!!!!
Certainly. As I noted, they generally skew 5-6 points to the Dems. Yahoo's "projected EV totals" has it going 355-156 for Obama. Even a modest win, like Bush's 2004 tally (286-235) would seem like an spectacular defeat with that as one's mental starting point. (A mandate even! LOL)
Using the Oct 26 map in the Yahoo article, and adding just 4 points for McCain to each state's polling, McCain erases Obama's supposed lead in IN, MO, ND, NV, FL, and NC.
For the other 5 "battleground states", Obama is supposedly up 4.5% in OH, up 7% in VA, up 11% in PA, up 8% in CO, and up 7% in NM.
Telling, isn't it, that OH (Obama up 4.5%) and PA (Obama up 11%) are "battleground states", and yet GA (McCain up 5%), WV (McCain up 8%), and MT (McCain up 3%) are not. Clearly, the pollsters take that slanted polls into account, too. Either 5-10% is a solid lead, or it isn't. Making it secure only for McCain shows that they know the polls are off. It ain't over yet!
I’m going to say McCain, 311. I think Pa is going red early, and that should help bring Colorado and New Mexico into line.
McCain would have to win overwhelmingly in PA, and people would have to stop lying to pollsters if they’re exit-polled, for the media to call PA for McCain in time to affect Colorado and New Mexico. They’ll probably wait until 2 in the morning if they can get away with it.
Good point. Looking at the polling data at Pa thread, I think it’s a 3 point race right now. I’m expecting McCain to surge this week, and for Easy Ed and the Clinton gang to help out the cause. So I say McCain by 50 or 60 thousand votes in Pa.
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