Posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:32 AM PDT by Bushite
Indeed. He is my source.
But I disagree with him. I think McCain has underground support in PA.
That is so true that he cannot better his poll numbers and in fact the polling outfits keep having to adjust their methodology to keep him ahead. He only won because Dean/Pelosi/Reid stiff armed the super delegates and Dean pulled that stunt with FL and MI — Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in MI.
Don’t think this Country is ready to elect a black socialist as President no matter how much the media and pollsters say we do. Obama’s comments to Joe the Plumber followed up by the attacks on Joe which came on the heels of the attacks on Sarah Palin have made people sit up and notice. Then we have the TV station which is now on the Obama hit list with their questions and it is resonating.
This is one election I believe a lot of Americans are putting America First instead of Party when they vote for Sen McCain.
I don’t think a large portion of this Country wants to turn the Presidency over to a very liberal, black socialist from Chicago who is friends with the Hate America group of activists who wants to redistribute the wealth and trashes the Constitution.
I'm thinking the "2004 Results" might be a hint.
Blue County: O underperformance
Bucks: -2
Allegheny: -5
Erie: -4
Montgomery: -4
I like Barone but I do not buy it. Upper middle class may see their 401Ks taxed, may see Obama “spread the wealth around”, and may see their job go away if Obama wins.
I know people with companies who plan on laying people off if Obama wins. They will tough it out if McCain wins but they expect things to get worse if Obama wins.
The upper middle class may think Obama is safe but they did not get upper middle cleass by being stupid.
Obama widens the gap from Bush/Kerry in:I see:
York County by 18%
York: M: 57 O: 39 2004 Results: B: 63 K: 35You subtracted K from M to get 18. If one subtracts K from O, it is 4.
I don’t think you understand. This is relatively good news.
Another, less favorable way to look at your data:
County: 2008 poll, 2004 result
Bucks: Obama+6, Kerry+3
Allegheny: O+10, K+15
Erie: O+7, K+9
York: M+12, B+28
Montgomery: O+12, K+11
Ok. Thank you for providing this information.
PS.
I have my setting to 250 post per page, so I’m still on page 1.
Assuming the turnout is the same and the polls are an accurate reflection of what’s going to happen, that’s 35K extra votes for McCain in Allegheny, and 15K less votes for McCain in York. -9k bucks. +3k erie. -4k monty.
So, the results are good.
I expect good +s in
the hillary blowout counties, the counties where hillary got over 70% in the primaries. beaver, washington, fayette, lackawanna, luzerne. beaver, washington, fayette are southwestern pa, near pittsburgh (Allegheny). Luzerne and Lackawanna are Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Not too many hipsters there. Not too many indie rock fans there. Not too many readers of the blog “stuff white people like”.
This is fantastic news, if you crunch the numbers.
In agggregate - for these counties in 2004 - Kerry won 56.4% of the vote to Bush’s 43.6%.
If these poll numbers are accurate (big “if”) and if the undecideds split evenly, that implies Obama at 53.5% and McCain at 46.5% in aggregate for these counties.
That’s a swing from a 12.8% D advantage to a 7% D advantage, or a 5.8% net swing.
Kerry only won PA by 2.5% in 2004. If McCain is outperforming Bush at these levels statewide, he wins. Easily.
Don’t sweat it folks....
M is not trailing Bush everywhere... Unions are polling their members, and harrassing folks who don’t tow the party line. D’s are lying to all pollsters in PA as a result.
Relax.
Oh, I anticipate a victory in all those counties, but McCain did not run particularly strong in the Primaries, and Obama did pretty well in some of south central.
The York numbers aren’t good. Republicans typically pick up big vote margins in Lancaster and York.
In 2004, Bush got 70k more votes than Kerry in Lancaster, 50k in York, 30k in Cumberland, 10k in Dauphin. Hershey, where the rally was this morning, was in Dauphin, a populous county which includes the city of Harrisburg. (you know the geographics, but others might not)
What? If Obama wins - his cronies and ACORN and SEIU will be cherry picking union jobs for their own. A lot of white union rank & file and union bosses will be thrown under the bus like Obama’s “typical white woman” grandmother. If I was a white union member I would vote McCain in secrecy to protect my job.
Which was exactly what I saw.
I may be wrong but I have a feeling why there are so many “undecided” this time is because so many really don’t want to be chastised for not being for Obama and I think the majority will pull the lever for McCain once behind the curtain. I sure hope so. We have to hope, that’s about all that stands between communism and us.
Your statistical analysis assumes that McCain gets 100% of the undecideds. It could be true, but more likely than not, it’s an overly rosy assumption.
see post 91. You need to look at the absolute numbers - not jsut the percentages.
Bush won York by 28% in 2004.
McCain leads by 18% in York.
That means Obama is outperforming Kerry (gap wise) by 10% this year, according to the poll.
m+18 not m+12.
We have to look at what these counties are, too.
I would be worried if Obama was way up over McCain in Monty and Bucks. We can figure that Chester and Delaware are in the same basic range - a slight Obama gain or holding steady.
Our gain in Allegheny is likely met or exceeded in
beaver washington fayette.
We’re going to be getting substantial gains out of those counties.
I’d expect gains out of S/W-B but we have no data for that.
Also, gut feeling tells me that there’s gonna be strong turnout and stronger than usual margins in the less populous counties. I don’t think they’re going to be doing a specific poll for Fulton county (let’s say) which Bush won with 76%.
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