Your analysis makes sense to me but I think it will come out to about 3 million votes for McCain and many more not voting for either. Either way, it is enough to offset or surpass any other advantages that Barry might have.
The anger that still lingers from Hillary getting shafted like she did will bring the Hillary supporters out in droves to vote for McCain.
Tie this in with Repubs coming out in full force - if they will just get out there and vote - means big trouble for Obama on Nov 4th, 2008.
Among those, though, who shifted to supporting Obama - their support for him is soft.
You can bet that way over 3 million will show up to vote for McCain.
Honestly, I really think it will be higher than 3 mill. There are so many dems working in Victory offices here in Broward co FL that you would not even believe it. Add to that the Hillbuzz, Hillaryclintonforum, Texasdarlin, Pumapac, and other puma sites with their huge support and I think you have a bunch of folks who are seriously pizzed off about the perceived hijacking of the party of FDR and JFK.
You may be right that some of them will not vote or will vote a protest third party vote. But I think that when the trashing of Palin began, it was the trashing of Hillary all over again to them. They understand better than anyone that Obama hates women. Heck his mother abandoned him for all intents and purposes, so I suppose that less than a normal reaction to strong women might be expected. He needs pity and prayer, not the oval office.
58% are not voting for McCain, normally, hte vast majory, 90% plus vote for the nominee. So the real story here is that 10,000,000 votes normally counted on, are not going to be there for the Dimms, regardless of whether McCain gets them or not....That is a lot of ground for him to make up...
This tallies with what I was told this week by a liberal about the local liberals here in SW WI: voting Nader, staying home or voting McCain.