So What Does It Mean That McCain Outpolled Obama on Friday?

Campaign Spot/NRO ^

[Chet 99]

Friday, October 31, 2008

HORSERACE, JOHN MCCAIN, BARACK OBAMA

So What Does It Mean That McCain Outpolled Obama on Friday?

A bit earlier tonight, a skeptical reader wrote in:

As of Friday night, as we go into the last weekend of the campaign, not one national poll shows  movement toward McCain.  Most show movement toward Obama.  How do you expect anyone to believe your optimistic spins? Your so-called garu [sic] who is reporting tomorrow better be up to the task, for he has an enormous challenge to present a credible case for McCain making this race even competitive on Tuesday. By the way, the distinction you threw out there between polling numbers and intentions is as preposterous as the validity you gave to the Nick at Night children's poll. What's happening is the opposite of the wishful thinking and party line spin: independents and undecide voters are moving strongly in Obama's direction.

And then, as if to smite him, the Gods of Polling answered, and my guru - I prefer the term "mentor" — called to make sure I saw on Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

Now, we will see if this is a one-day blip, or whether it is a trend, or an indication that the independents are indeed breaking to McCain. I had been speculating for a short while that those answering "undecided" were mostly "I don't like Obama, and will vote for the cranky old guy, but don't want to tell anyone."

10/31 10:46 PM

[Biggirl]

Thanks for the good news.

[buccaneer81]

It doesn’t mean a damn thing. Polls are useless.

[GodGunsGuts]

Don’t forget to FReep this Digg to the top!!!

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/So_What_Does_It_Mean_That_McCain_Outpolled_Obama_on_Friday

[reaganixonbush]

I agree, totally useless.

Zogby is just hedging his bets, that he was “scientific” and “fair” in his polls. Just 2 days before, it’s + 6 for O, now M is 1 pt ahead. Now anyone knows how weathermen work...THEY GUESS! When weathermen say its a mixed bag? That means THEY HAVE NO FREAKIN CLUE. Same thing with Zogby et al polls. Just take it with a grain of salt.

[softwarecreator]

It doesn’t mean a damn thing. Polls are useless

Exactly, this means nothing more than when "O" was leading by 11% or whatever. For all we know they could be saying this just to have him be the comeback kid over the weekend. I don't trust these polls one bit, whether McCain is up or down. I don't know who they poll, for all I know they might not poll anyone and just post whatever they want until the last day.

[goldstategop]

Its a trend... its been happening for awhile. A blip does not manifest itself close to the election. What has happened is a national buyers' case of remorse has set in. People are not comfortable with Obama and are backing someone they do they do know... McCain. The undecideds appear to be breaking for him. Of note is the fact Obama has not exceeded 47% in various polls throughout much of the year. This then is what he can expect to get on Election Day, perhaps less. But it will not approach the level of support John Kerry received in 2004.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[lmr]

Didn't Gallup show Reagan up by 1 the day before the election when he ran against Carter?

Every poll before then showed Reagan behind and we know what happened. LANDSLIDE.

[wardaddy]

it means that for whatever reason we won one day’s polling from a non sympathetic pollster....I’ll take it

[screaming eagle2]

Going to be a very close finish

[goldstategop]

I don't think it presages a McCain landslide. But if one was unexpectedly going to happen, we'd pop the champagne here early. For now all we can do is wait and see what it really means.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

The winner should be ahead three to four points. It won't be THAT close, I can promise you that is going to be the case next week. People don't want to give a gold watch to whoever is going to win their favor through the media, which they all detest.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[wardaddy]

In 1980 Reagan won by 8.3%....odd considering CBS has Obama up by 15 points eh?

lol

yes, Reagan’s landslide did not show up in the polls till Sunday before the election though he did have a lead after the last debate...a small one in a week marred by resignation issues from both campaigns

Reagan’s 10% margin was not predicted even then

back then there were only a handful of polls and some cut it off on Friday before election

inaccuracy of the polls is something in common but this year is not really 1980 either

if we win, it’s 1948.....only comparable I can find to tell you the truth

Truman won by 4 points and the pre-election polls had Dewey at 5-15 points up

though polling then was much less scientific but maybe today’s bias is even worse then primitive polling techniques

[Chet 99]

1996 was a really bad year for polling, but no one remembers or cares because the correct winner was picked by the polls... but the last CBS poll was off by 10.

[Arizona Carolyn]

This was posted on the PUMA site. Takes a couple of minutes to download, but interesting and worth the listen time:

http://davidjeffers.thevanguard.org/...real-polls.mp3

[jeltz25]

I just hope this doesnt end up like 1976 where Ford’s rally falls just short by a couple pts and everyone says he would have won if the election was a week later.

We should know early though. If VA and NC fall early, it will be a bad night. If they hold and then it’s on to OH and FL and if they hold then CO and NV will decide things.

Of course, if PA flips and goes for us, things will be looking very good. And NH could be an upset possibility as McCain always seems to do well there and it was NH that turned on Obama back in Jan.

Even if we win PA we could still lose if VA or NC falls, but if we win PA i have to think that means VA and NC are in the bag. To lose the election because of a VA or NC would be very tough to swallow.

lets just hope for the best

[goldstategop]

Its worse because none of the polling has been really scientific. In a year when the public is supposedly volatile in political allegiance and unsure about its voting intentions, its striking every poll finds Obama consistently ahead! Where's this fluid political environment?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Arizona Carolyn]

I was as nervous then as I am now, no one really had a clue what was going to happen, just that Carter had sunk the country into misery. I was cooking liver and onions and we were watching the returns and cheering wildly as the returns started to come in and were beyond our wildest dreams for Reagan...

[goldstategop]

All we can do is trust the American people to chart a wise course for our country. In one way, its out of our hands. In another way, real people will decide the outcome of the election, not the pollsters and not the MSM with its self interested agenda.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[jeltz25]

exactly, they had Clinton winning by 15-23 for all of October. The poll on 10/31/96 had Clinton +18. He ended up winning by 8 and Dole added 7 pts to his total of what they had for him. Clinton dropped 3.