60 Still A Longshot For Democrats

RealClearPolitics 2008 on Yahoo ^ | 11/1/08 | Reid Wilson

[NormsRevenge]

With just over 100 hours until polls close, Democrats are still smelling a filibuster-proof sixty-seat majority in the Senate. But as surveys across the country show races getting tighter, Republicans maintain a good chance of keeping the Democrats short of their magic number.

An analysis of Senate seats in play shows Democrats seriously competing in a whopping eleven Republican-held states, while the GOP only has an increasingly long shot at one seat.

Senators Roger Wicker and Mary Landrieu were the last two off our list. Wicker will face huge African American turnout in Mississippi, and he's gone on radio with ads featuring crossover voters who say they will back him and Barack Obama. But Democratic foe Ronnie Musgrove hasn't made a big move lately, and he trails in the polls.

As for Landrieu, the Louisiana senator's Republican opponent is trying to connect her with Obama in a negative way, and state Treasurer John Kennedy is touting a new poll that shows him trailing by just a single point. But public surveys have showed Landrieu leading comfortably, and Democratic strategists barely mention her as in trouble.

Here, just days before Election Day, is our latest list of the ten seats most likely to change hands in the 111th Congress:

[yldstrk]

Democrats smell something alright but victory ain’t what it is

[HighlyOpinionated]

‘Twas the night before elections
And all through the town
Tempers were flaring
Emotions all up and down!

I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap
Had cut off the TV
Tired of political crap.

When all of a sudden
There arose such a noise
I peered out of my window
Saw Obama and his boys

They had come for my wallet
They wanted my pay
To give to the others
Who had not worked a day!

He snatched up my money
And quick as a wink
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink

He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!

” On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, On Pelosi”
He screamed at the pairs!

They took off for his cause
And as he flew out of sight
I heard him laugh at the nation
Who wouldn’t stand up and fight!

So I leave you to think
On this one final note-
IF YOU DONT WANT SOCIALISM
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!

[Luke21]

Wow, so much good news here. You’d think the whole country would just raise the hammer and sickle and get it over with.

[BCrago66]

If the Dems get 57, we’re in trouble, because of RINO Senators such as Snow, Collins, and Voinovich. If Obama wins, we might have to figure out some kind of guerilla partimentary tactics to stop the Democrats, because the fillibuster may not be available.

[DemonDeac]

Here is how I see it.

Virginia is a lock for them. Warner has it.
New Mexico probably goes Democrat.
I’d say Alaska leans Dem thanks to that selfish corrupt old fool.
NH probably goes Dem.
Colorado probably goes Dem.

NC is a toss-up or maybe a very slight Dole lean. Dole is not the most popular in the state.
Oregon is probably a toss-up.
Minnesota is likely R in my view.

I think they most likely pick up five to six. They ain’t getting 60. Obviously them picking up a few is not a good thing but it could be worse.

[Paleo Conservative]

If the Dems get 57, we’re in trouble, because of RINO Senators such as Snow, Collins, and Voinovich. If Obama wins, we might have to figure out some kind of guerilla partimentary tactics to stop the Democrats, because the fillibuster may not be available.

But the DemocRATS might find they are herding cats when it comes to cloture votes. Quite a few DemocRAT senators like Landrieu from conservative states might not go along with some of the really radical proposals Obama wants to get through Congress. Landrieu never wins with overwhelming margins.

[buckalfa]

Take that number down to 56, maybe 55 if McCain loses. McCain and his lap dog, Lindsey Graham of SC will work with the Rats under the guise of principaled compromise. Point of reference, the Gang of 14.

[ScottinVA]

“Quite a few DemocRAT senators like Landrieu from conservative states might not go along with some of the really radical proposals Obama wants to get through Congress. Landrieu never wins with overwhelming margins.”

Sen Jim Webb and incoming (face it — up by avg. 30%) Sen Mark Warner will need to be careful as to how they vote as well. While VA is unfortunately getting bluer as time goes on, there is still a large conservative constituency here to keep them on their toes. Neither Webb nor Warner are particularly liberal across-the-board.

[skinkinthegrass]

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Leads Bruce Lunsford....by 2+ pts.

[Impy]

I project a 58-42 Senate, worst in my lifetime.

-VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, OR, NC

[yongin]

A President Obama is going to have to deal with a recession. Already, Michelle is saying Obama can’t fix everything at once. Hussein may actually want the Senate to be under 60 Rodents. This way, he can accuse GOP Senators of standing in the way of change and prolonging the Bush term.