[Unkosified]

Can someone smarter than me do an electoral map that comes out to 279 given the current polls?

[goldstategop]

Start with all the Bush states and subtract IA. That gives you that 279 figure. Flip NM for NH. Then if you want to add more put in PA and then MN and WI for surprise pickups. That brings one up to 320. Of course if that doesn't happen 279 is something we can all live with but McCain will do better than Bush on both of his tries.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Above My Pay Grade]

Bush 2004 states minus Iowa would be 279.

[only1percent]

Obama could conceivably lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote by the current 3-5 margins shown in the national opinion polls.

He does it by winning core blue states going away (as seems likely), keeping it much closer than usual in deep South states (as also seems likely), while still narrowly losing the critical states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania because McCain lifts more white votes there than Obama gains in black turnout.

What Obama is hoping for is the true 5+ landslide that will almost certainly imply the retained white working class loyalty that flips Ohio and Florida and retains Pennsylvania, which assures victory.