[Chet 99]

In a telephone interview Saturday, Coker said: “What’s gonna be interesting is if this undecided vote breaks conventionally and splits, or if it all goes one way to Obama or McCain.”

Of undecided voters in Virginia, the poll reveals 93 percent are white and 75 percent do not live in Northern Virginia.

In other words, they're voting for McCain. McCain wins VA 52-48.

[Rick_Michael]

I think you’re right.

[jeltz25]

I bet and I’ve heard this from a bunch of friends and family that people are fed up with Bush. They really can’t stand him and it’s very difficult for them to imagine essentially ratifying his administration and putting McCain in. On the other hand, they don’t like Obama either. If Clinton was the nominee she’d win easily as they’d have little trouble voting for her. But it’s almost like they feel even though they don’t like Obama at least he’s not Bush. The question is if in the 3 days enough of them say well, McCain isn’t Bush either, the dems still have Congress, things can’t get much worse, and we can always go with Clinton in 4 years anyway. Some like Palin, some don’t, but she’s not really a factor among most of them, also some women do like her.

93% white undecided and 75% out of NOVA bodes well. I’m worried about the Mark Warner factor. It doesn’t help that the top 3 politicos in the state are Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, all Obama backers. That’s a tough hurdle to overcome. With him on the ballot it becomes easier to vote straight dem or for Obama than it would if John Warner were winning another big votory. Mark Warner is popular throughout the state.

What happened to VA? It used to be solid GOP. Has NOVA really shifted the demographics that much. Obama’s 100% of the black vote is also probably worth an extra pt or two.

VA is key as it’s an early state. If they call it for Obama right away, it will be a pretty gloomy night as that will pretty much depress turnout in CO, NV, MO, the FL panhandle and pts west. Same with NC. If, OTOH, McCain wins NC and VA then that will have the reverse impact and should motivate people out west to bring it on home

[WOSG]

“In other words, they’re voting for McCain. McCain wins VA 52-48. “

That sounds about right. Even if the undecideds only split 2 to 1 for McCain, its a tossup.

IT’S ALL ABOUT GOTV.