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Posted on 11/02/2008 12:30:36 PM PST by Retired Greyhound
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain's deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.blogs.time.com ...
Regardless, just get out and vote!
For the record..Charlie Black to us..is like Bob Shrum to the Democrats..that is not a compliment.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Duly noted.
Good to see some optimism, though.
My expectation is that we’re actually going to know pretty early on Tuesday evening who the next president will be. Pennsylvania is on EST, so its outcome should be known by 9 or 10 pm, I’m thinking. If McCain wins PA, then it is to me an obvious sign that he is winning the whole thing. If not, the race isn’t lost without it (Dubya never won PA), but it means I’ll be up a while later.
I can't wait! I can't wait!! I CAN'T WAIT!!!
I it NOVEMBER 4th YET?!?!
Grrrrr Come ON already!!!!
I regret that I have but ONE vote to give for my country.....
Is Black basing his comments on internal numbers or only on optimism?
What’s up with all this internal polling, anyways? Do they not trust any polling agency?
Bush won Ohio in 2004; ACORN has pulled out all the stops on their fraud this year (early/often/duplicate voting), and Sec. of State Brunner is making sure there is no Republican win here this year.
From his lips to God’s and the voters’ ears and fingers on the levers or similar devices.
I just read on another thread that the Cedar Rapids Gazette has endorsed McCain. One FReeper mentioned that this is the second largest metro paper in Iowa. Another believes it tends to be a pretty liberal paper. Good news!
Holy smoke. If that's true, M/P wins Pennsylvania going away.
See, this isn’t good news........a big lead for O.
It is hard to imagine a poll being THIS far off:
“Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain’s deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.”
But, with other polls closer, it is hard to imagine we can’t still win, even in IA.
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Sad but true. The only thing that makes me feel better is McCain has the younger guy Steve Schmidt.
They know but they never tell what the real numbers are. I hope the red states include CO, NV, VA and NC.
Get out and vote.
I’d feel better if we didn’t have Rove’s fuzzy math of 2006 hanging over our heads.
I am optimist and think McCain will pull this out despite Charlie Black..point is Charlie Black is a loser always has been
You are joking right?
Ha! Good one!
Contact ACORN...they'll fix that pesky problem for ya.
YES !
IN FACT ......VOTE EARLY IN CASE YER SICK OR INJURED OR WORSE AND CAN’T GET THERE ON THE 4TH !!!
Please .......:o)
I can't imagine that McCain (who appeals to a broader spectrum than W) could do worse than Pres. Bush in 04.
And I can't imagine voter fraud can tip the scale enough to give it to Obama.
I've even cautiously argued that we may fare far better in the houses than pundits are predicting.
Thus, I tend to think the campaign is right that things are a lot closer than the public polls would suggest.
We can and I think we will win this thing.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Only if you're not a Democrat.
watch fraud in Philly, including suburbs... critical to carrying PA
I would give my eyeteeth to see the networks have to crap in their pants on Tuesday night. Final nail in their coffin.
That would mean that he's doing better than Bush. Based on yard signs, McCain's way ahead.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Each campaign does its own internal polling because they need the absolute truth. The campaigns don’t poll nationally, only statewide. Their polling is so specific that they’ll poll down to the precinct level to find out where their votes are coming from and where they need to go for rallies, etc. Mac’s pollster, Bill McInturff, is excellent.
We need to keep in mind internal polling usually will be too positive for your candidate. Usually it will be wrong, and somewhere in between is the truth. However, I believe in this case, it will be closer to what the GOP is saying than the public polls...the public polls are really off I think.
I have no idea what’s going to happen Tuesday. But, if the Networks do call PA for Mac anytime, especially before midnight, Wednesday is going to be a very, very long day for Barry and his minions.
And make phone calls to get out the vote. It’s easy. You can even do it from home. Go to johnmccain.com to volunteer. They give you the numbers and you go from there.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The stuff we see is junk though TIPP/IBD and Battleground Polls do good work.
The GOP has an incredible database plus experts in each state that known down to individual streets how people vote and why they vote plus what can motivate them. Their internal polls have far greater detail and you will never see them. The GOP has an awesome database and GOTV. Rove spent many millions on it.
The Dems are a bit less sophisticated but getting better. Their awesome GOTV includes vote fraud with ACORN.
VA polls are the first to close in the nation, and the winner will likely win the election.
I doubt that the MSM will call Penn early in the evening for McCain - if he wins there - nor NH or VA.
But, if they DO NOT call those states, than I think we can take it as good news.
ping
Scranton/Wilkesbarre is a toss up because of the Biden Effect but central Pennsyltucky is McCain all the way. I am betting it will be very close and won’t be called until the abstentees are counted. PA pumps out a lot of military and their absentee votes will tip the scales heavily in Macs favor.
I like your enthusiasm! I got so reved up, I couldn't wait 'til Nov 4 and I turned in my absentee ballot.
Here is my new sign of hope here in the liberal Virginia-D.C. suburbs:
I have two young black men in my high school age Sunday school class (here in Northern Virginia)—who were adopted by a white couple. These boys have been bigtime Bush bashers. But they were Hillary fans too. And maybe there is a factor here in the sense that their adoptive parents take in all sorts of kids of various backgrounds— including special needs kids.
Last month, the more talkative youth was all pumped up for the Sarah Palin rally down in Richmond (Columbus Day). Obviously, something had impacted them.
Today, the boys asked me who I was voting for. I balked because I try to keep partisanship out of my class. (And we have some pretty liberal folks in our church.) But I finally said, “well, I have problems with McCain... but I have a lot more problems with Obama. So I will be voting for McCain.”
The lads were ecstatic. Young Nick was excited about being close enough to touch Sen. McCain at a recent rally and worked the phone banks for 5 hours yesterday.
Something is going on here in Virginia that the MSM has completely and almost predictably has missed.
I would guess the Philly suburbs has a lot of Catholics including Italian-Americans (IA). Obama is not getting many or even any IA votes.
The problem with these polls is they ask on one of the questions is do you approve or disapprove of George W. Bush. That in its self will skew the data toward the Democrats! I believe that John McCain and Sarah Palin will win this election. I live in a Blue state and there is something weird going on. When I drive around there is hardly any Obama bumper stickers on cars. I drive through the parking lots and there isn’t any. Once in a while I see one Obama but I see McCain/Palin just as often!
"Congratulations, President . . . McCain" (Congratulations, President McCain
That is NOT the ACORN spirit!
Often internal polls show completely opposite things, at least I recall them doing so in the past. IE......2004 kerry’s polls had him winning. Bush’s had him winning.
internal polls just show what the candidate wants to hear to a degree.
However, I do think like in 2004, the republican polls will be closer to reality this year, so we can win this.
In the last two weeks, I believe several powerful trends have come together, and at just the right time for McCain and Palin. Independent voters have begun to look anew at Barack Obama, and many have decided that they do not like what they see, even if they once strongly desired to see something else.
Democrat voters include a significant number of new voters whom the polls assume will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, but include people who signed up to vote for him in the primaries as a counter to Hillary Clinton, as well as Hillary voters who cannot stand Obama, but will not admit so publicly.
Republicans are charged up and motivated - far more so than in either 2004 or 2006. This fact in and of itself is extremely vital, as it was completely unanticipated by the "prestige" polls like Gallup - who still refuse to recognize the facts on the ground that conflict with their prized methodologies.
One more thing: VOTE. Call a friend. Call a neighbor. Tell them how important you believe this election is - because it truly is.
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