Posted on 11/02/2008 11:54:28 PM PST by Hetty_Fauxvert
Good weather across the country is in the forecast for Election Day, which could be bad news for Sen. John McCain in his bid for the White House.
Local Weather Central meteorologist Brian Olson said the advanced forecast for next Tuesday shows little precipitation anywhere in the United States, a bad sign for McCain if a study done last year holds true this election year.
Three political scientists confirmed the old political saying that Republicans should pray for rain on Election Day, because voters "on the fence" about going to the polls have a tendency not to go if it's a rainy day, and those voters are normally more left-leaning.
The research looked at presidential elections from 1948 to 2000 and showed in three cases, 1972, 1992 and 2000, rain or snow caused hundreds of thousands of potential voters to stay home, and many non-voters end up being Democrats.
Why? Political operatives say Democrats tend to be lower income than Republicans and might have to rely on public transportation or foot power to get to the polls, which can be a deterrent to going to vote if it's a rainy day.
Olson told The Capital Times the long-range national outlook for Nov. 4 shows several areas of rain, but most of the country will be affected by a high pressure system sitting over the eastern half of the country, producing little rain and abundant sunshine.
"A lot of the country will be pretty quiet," Olson said.
He checked the long-range prognostication region by region and couldn't find much precipitation.
"From Maine to Florida, the only threat of showers is in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, there might be some snow showers in the high mountain regions out West and maybe some rain along the Washington and Oregon coasts," Olson said.
"All up and down the Plains, from South Dakota to Texas, looks good, the four-corners states (Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado) look good and the Midwest is good.
Weatherwise, "it should be a super Election Day," Olson said.
Dane County Clerk Bob Ohlsen said if there is inclement weather on Election Day around here, it usually means a lower turnout by young people than old people.
"My sense is older people still go to the polls unless it's ice," Ohlsen said. "These are people who have voted for years, have always voted, and will vote regardless of the weather."
The weather effect on elections research was published in the Journal of Politics in 2007 and was conducted by Brad Gomez of the University of Georgia, Thomas Hansford of the University of California at Merced, and George Krause of the University of Pittsburgh.
It showed rain in certain counties of Florida on Nov. 7, 2000, might have been the determining factor in the tight race between George Bush and Al Gore, with Bush winning the state by a scant 500 votes, eeking out an Electoral College victory with the Florida results, and subsequently winning the presidency.
"Something as simple as rainy weather in some Florida counties may have played a critical role in determining the outcome of a presidential election," the study said, according to an ABC News report on Monday.
Ironically, rain kept Republican John McCain from giving his stump speech in Quakertown, Pa., Tuesday morning, while Democrat Barack Obama weathered the rain and delivered his stump speech to about 9,000 supporters in Chester, about an hour away.
"A little bit of rain never hurt anybody," Obama said in Chester, according to Carrie Budoff Brown reporting on Politico.com.
Wouldn’t that be bad in states where there has already been much early voting? Only pray for rain in states without early voting, ha.
“voters “on the fence” about going to the polls have a tendency not to go if it’s a rainy day, and those voters are normally more left-leaning.”
I.E. They’re slackers.
Great! It is supposed to rain here in the Portland Metro area in Oregon and lots of people turn in their mail in ballots on Election day instead of mailing them. If enough of the democrats stay home (except for the PUMA’s of course and we know they are motivated!) then with the PUMA’s help maybe we cam pull off a big Oregon win for MCain this year too!
I was hoping for rain in Philadelphia, but it looks like there will be only light rain, starting around 3PM.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/19019?begHour=5&begDay=309
Let’s hope it gets heavy and starts around 7AM.
Oh, shut up, Bill. I’ve got 50% chance of showers tomorrow, and I have to be at the poll before 6:30. 50% of our county has already voted, according to the manager of the campaign I’m volunteering for.
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