The early Nevada results paralell Time Magazine’s poll 2.5 weeks ago to the tee. Time’s poll had Obama +6%, but the internals said Time oversampled Democrats by +11% (41-30, with 29% Independents). That smelled of trouble for Obama then. He only managed a lead of barely half of his own party’s oversampling margin. Tells me one of two things is true: either the Hillary supporters are telling Obama to pound sand, or all the Democrats are in line and the Independents are breaking hugely for McCain.
If Obama loses 10% or more of the Hillary voters, I don’t know how he can win. It’s unthinkable to me that any Republicans will vote for him. He needs EVERY single Democrat to vote for him, and I just can’t see that happening.
I'm glad someone gets this. We are also always assuming "Is" break even, but they won't. Dick Morris has already concluded that they have broken for McCain.