It’s a zero sum market. Slightly less than zero sum considering transaction costs.
But for every dollar lost by a “trader” there will be a dollar made by a “trader’.
The price distribution among the states is highly skewed and is thus very unlikely to be predictive.
Note that Intrade is often used as a market into which other betting syndicates lay off risk.
I think there is enormous money to be made on Intrade this year in very many of the state markets.
Good Luck !
jas3
Intrade Market Summary (This is what I am using to trade with, but you are on your own:-) You can fund an account with a credit card with some extra security steps.
Pretty Safe Bets
Montana $7.50 to get $10.00
N. Dakota $7.50 - $10.00
Arizona $8.50 - $10.00
Low Risk
Georgia $7.50 - $10.00
Missouri $5.00 - $10.00
Indiana $6.50 - $10.00
North Carolina $3.50 - $10.00
Moderate Risk
Florida $3.00 - $10.00
Nevada $1.50 - $10.00
Ohio $2.00 - $10.00
Higher Risk
Virginia $1.75 - $10.00
Pennsylvania $1.20 - $10.00
New Mexico $2.00 - $10.00
Colorado $1.70 - $10.00
New Hampshire $1.40 - $10.00
Clint Eastwood
Wisconsin .50 - 10.00
New Jersey .40 - 10.00
Minnesota .90 - 10.00
Michigan .50 - 10.00
Iowa .65 - 10.00
California .20 - 10.00