With regards to SurveyUSA’s VA poll...
Here are the party affiliation numbers for that poll:
Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 24%
For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:
Republican - 39%
Democrat - 35%
Independent - 26%
So, that poll is also based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004.
However, the poll only includes a 2% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.
The poll results were as follows:
Obama - 50%
McCain - 46%
So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:
Obama - 12% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage
McCain - 10% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage
In VA, Obama is actually outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +2% greater than McCain. I’m afraid that VA is going to be more tough (as many have expected).
In my opinion, this election comes down to PA and VA. If one of the candidates wins both states, they will be President. If those states are split, we’re watching returns well into the night.
-Bob
LLS
Might be a little worse than that.
From poll - St. Louis - McCain - 40% Obama - 56%
In the City in 2000, Al Gore and Joe Lieberman garnered an amazing 77.4% of the vote with a raw vote total of 96,557 votes compared to 19.9% (24,799 votes) of the vote to Bush-Cheney and 2.1% of the vote for Nader (2,592 votes).
In 2004, Kerry-Edwards garnered 80.3% (116,133 votes) to Bush-Cheney’s 19.2% of the vote (27,793 votes) and write-ins for Nader of 17 votes.
Means Obama is underperforming Gore by 15% and Kerry by 24%
Your analysis is a bit off. It’s not enough for O to win indies, if he loses more Ds and Rs outnumber Ds. Consider it this way.
O gets 50% in a 38% weighted D poll.
Assume he gets all the Ds, then hes got 12% or 50% of indies.
M gets 46% in a 36% weighted R polls
Assume he gets all the Rs, then hes got 10% or 42% of indies.
In a R 39/ D 35 / I 26 race, matching 2004, this would be
39+ 11 (.42x.26) = 50% McCain
35+13 = 48% Obama
Polls also show the ‘undecideds’ to be mostly white and not in NOVA, meaning a likely mccain/but-wont-state vote.
So that would be 52%/48% McCain, or a 4point margin.
I dont know what will happen, because there is fluidity in who is calling themselves R and D this year. I think that is screwing up polls perhaps moreso than ‘bradley effect’ (which imho is showing itself in the high undecideds).
If you can ‘fix’ the internals on this poll to go from narrow victory for Obama to the same for McCain, then it is telling you that THE RACE IS STILL TBD.