[Perdogg]

Sample size

D44

R37

I19

[babydubya1981]

They purposely changed their weighting. Last poll only had I believe a 2-3 point difference.

[goldstategop]

Garbage. Democrats have a 7+ voter turnout advantage? I don't buy. According to the early voting info given on Fox, Obama has a 1+ early voting lead, which means partisan turnout so far is dead even. This is wrong and way off.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[kesg]

Leaving aside the usual Dem net oversample, note a few other things about this faux Fox Obamapoll. One, using my usual methods, I suspect that Fox oversampled city slickers and minorities. The tipoff for city slickers is Fox’s astonishing finding that Obama’s 50-43 “lead” is identical between men and women. In real elections, that never happens. The only way to dilute the man vote is to include too many men who live in cities or are minorities.

Note that McCain is now performing even better with white women than Bush did, yet overall he is not performing as well with women. This is yet another tipoff that this sample oversampled minority women, and I suspect more of them live in cities.

But the most astonishing thing to me is Fox’s finding that among early voters, Obama leads by only one point: 49-48. Like, wow. Shouldn’t he be ahead by much more than that? Wasn’t Kerry ahead by more than this with the early voters? What ever happened to that enthusiasm gap that is also driving the turnout models of these faux Obamapolls?