Basically these computer poll models assume registered dems will vote dem and registered Pubbies will vote Republican.
There’s NO WAY all dems will vote thier party as much as republicans will.
I’ve got two neighbors registered as dems voting for McCain. Plus all the PUMA’s.
The numbers here in Florida back that up with more dems voting early than republicans and yet McCain is winning.
I totally agree with this assessment.
I made a mistake and posted the same thing for Mr. Marston I calculated the PUMA’s or Dems switching need for each state. Mr. Marston lists the total numbers using RCP numbers that favor Obama.
FL 0.08%
VA 1.6%
CO 2.2%
NV 3.1%
NM 3.6%
PA 3.8%
NH 5.3%
WI 5.5%
MN 4.9%
Another things about early voting in SE FL in Broward County. The early voting locations are in more downtown locations or locations favoring “core” Obama voters.
They also have fewer early voting locations than last time. Many middle age and older white voters are not going to early vote at these locations especially with possible racial tensions. They, like myself, would much rather vote at their local precinct.