If McCain gets 92% of GOP votes (pretty high, but not excessive) and Obama gets 88% of Dem votes, then giving the other guy the difference (McCain 12% Dems; Obama 8% GOP---which based on other early voting is probably 2% too high, [itself = to 3,000 votes]), and splitting the indies at 51/49 McCain you get a slight McCain win.
Obviously, you can play with these numbers a lot. And obviously, the biggest gain comes when you have a Dem voter voting for McCain, because that adds one to his pile and takes one away from the Obama pile. I don't have a clue how the indies will go, but my estimate seems really low.
Winner take all state. Looks better for McCain than Obama.