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To: johncocktoasten
Ok, well, a little fiddling with the numbers says this = a McCain lead, although it was never stated (that I could find) what % of Dems voted for Obama and what % of Republicans voted for McCain.

If McCain gets 92% of GOP votes (pretty high, but not excessive) and Obama gets 88% of Dem votes, then giving the other guy the difference (McCain 12% Dems; Obama 8% GOP---which based on other early voting is probably 2% too high, [itself = to 3,000 votes]), and splitting the indies at 51/49 McCain you get a slight McCain win.

Obviously, you can play with these numbers a lot. And obviously, the biggest gain comes when you have a Dem voter voting for McCain, because that adds one to his pile and takes one away from the Obama pile. I don't have a clue how the indies will go, but my estimate seems really low.

20 posted on 11/03/2008 6:25:54 PM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Winner take all state. Looks better for McCain than Obama.


21 posted on 11/03/2008 6:32:41 PM PST by 1035rep
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