Skip to comments.Toast - Why Obama Will Lose and the Political Analysts Will Be Destroyed
Posted on 11/03/2008 10:27:02 PM PST by LibertyUSAmerica
Ive checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages. And I cant get to anything resorting to Sean Malstrom due to real life situations. Luckily I changed my career gears long ago. But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed. I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days.
(Excerpt) Read more at seanmalstrom.wordpress.com ...
By the way, his comments about IA are spot on... It is very very close...
Vote baby vote!
Totally cool with me.
Yep..sounds about right.
this pissant blog vanity is breaking news?
man...where are the mods these days?
every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit
If you are wrong, this country deserves everything it gets.
Quotes from the article -
“During the primary, it kept being reported that Clinton was pulling out of a state or falling apart internally and state polls show double digit Obama lead and so on. The reality was that Clinton did not pull out of those states, wasnt falling apart internally, and state polls that showed double digit Obama leads ended up either becoming small Obama wins (such as Virginia) or comfortabel Clinton wins (New Hampshire, California, Pennslyvania, etc. etc).”
“The polls are way, way off this election cycle. Pollsters have admitted that this election has the highest refusal to respond number. The undecideds are people who dont want to declare their choice. Why would they do that? If you belong to a Union, and they tell you to vote for Obama or else, you will not answer a pollster for it could be a union boss checking up on its members. PUMAs have declared their intention to lie to pollsters and they are organized. And there are many people who dont want to declare McCain because of being percieved as a racist.”
Remember Axelrod is the master of astroturfing. They are trying to depress Republican turnout with the Obama is inevitable talking point.
Take Your Plungers to the Polls!
Take Your Plungers to the Polls!Republican County Commissioner Steve Radack in Houston, Texas has purchased over 1,000 plungers to distribute at the polling places this Tuesday.
Radack, a longtime county commissioner, is known for rallying Harris County conservative voters.
You should wave your home plunger and rally conservatives to vote! We can win this election if we just keep fighting. Conservatives across the country should wave their plungers to get out the vote for John McCain and in support of Joe The Plumber, encouraged Radack.
Radack is also encouraging people across the nation to take a plunger with them to the polls on Tuesday.
Wurzelbacher, an Ohio working man, was thrust into the national spotlight last month when he approached Democrat Barack Obama with a question about his tax plan.
I am calling for a national movement in support of Joe the Plumber and McCain on Tuesday. Joe represents the real America. Hes a hardworking, middle-class guy who is concerned about being taxed out of a job, said Radack. I am doing this for all Americans who support Joe The Plumber and are concerned about small businesses surviving if Obama is elected.
Radack will be distributing plungers to poll workers who will be supporting conservative candidates Tuesday. He is asking all Joe the Plumber Americans to wave their plungers and take their plungers when they vote at the polls on Election Day.
Waving a plunger for the next two days will send a powerful message that people will encourage conservative Americans to vote, Radack said.
Take Your Plunger to the Polls!
Commissioner Steve Radack
(713) 465-8000 - firstname.lastname@example.org
Maybe this guy knows his politics, but he sure needs a proof reader.
Proofreader is one word....:)
This is actually some very persuasive analysis.
It is going to help me sleep better tonight.
Obama's socialism scares people. A lot of Republicans are very motivated to vote. It is an entirely different feel than in 2006, when we the big spenders made us embarrassed to be Republicans. But this is mentioned nowhere just about, save for this guys posting.
It’s the best overall analysis I’ve read outside of the MSM echo chamber. God, please let him be right.
Yes, I actually read the whole article. The guy makes a lot of sense. I particularly like this part:
Political analysis is not about math. Political analysis is about people. To analyze politics, you must be able to analyze people. In other words, the poet and novelist becomes the political analyst, not the mathematician and software engineer. Politics is all about people.
It seems no one is interested in studying people anymore. Look at the political analysis currently. There is very little analysis of the current liberal or conservative, for example, or the person from Pennslyvania or person from Iowa. In fact, there are no people. There are only numbers. Stark, lifeless, numbers. The problem with leveling political analysis to nothing more than a soup of numbers is that it cannot measure intensity. What does intensity have to do with politics? Well, everything. Intense people are those who vote.
And I hope he is right about this one:
Take to the bank, folks, Pennslyvania is turning red this election. Ive been talking Pennslyvania for the last couple of election posts so might as well continue. Pennslyvania is the *special state* of this election, the state that everyone will be talking about after the election. In that regards, Pennslyvania is to 2008 as Florida is to 2000 and Ohio is to 2004.
And I think this is a very good way of looking at conservatives:
With conservatives, there is a three legged stool of three different types of conservatives. The first leg is strong foreign policy (represented by McCain). The second leg is Social Conservatism (represented by Huckabee). The third leg is Economic Conservatism (represented by Romney). Reagan was all three legs of the stool.
There is lots of other good analysis in this article. I am putting this guy on my favorites list.
This is probably the best analysis I’ve read this whole election cycle.
I know....I was just trying to make Minn smile...:)
Thanks for posting. I’m hoping he’s right, but even if he isn’t there was a lot of good info, here.
One thing I must comment on; he says that foreign policy/defense conservatives have McCain and social conservatives turn to Palin but economic conservatives don’t have a figure in this race. Yes they do-his name is Obama. As we’ve seen more of his core beliefs, the more motivated all conservatives have become that he can’t be allowed anywhere near our money or property or jobs. As good a reason as any to come out and vote against him.
“It is an entirely different feel than in 2006,”
Apocalyptic abject terror, fear and loathing.
I though the analysis was going to be the standard kook-in-orbit self-promotion bit - but the other posters are right. That is one of the best analyses I have read — better even than Obi-Wan’s over at the Campaign Spot.
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