[LibertyUSAmerica]

Excellent analysis of what should happen tommorrow. Lots of common sense that seems to missing in the media and polling organizations....

By the way, his comments about IA are spot on... It is very very close...

[arichtaxpayer]

A long read, but well worth it. Thanks.

[arichtaxpayer]

My favorite part of the article:

Lying to pollsters is frequent and a necessity in Pennslyvania due to the unions. Many union bosses will call their members, posing as a ‘pollster’, and if the member gives the wrong asnwer, a thug is sent to the house. The Teacher’s Union there has sent strict orders to vote for Obama “or else”.

[snuffy smiff]

But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed.

Hmmm. He says that like it's a bad thing...

[MattinNJ]

Ping-this article nails it. I still say McCain BIG.

[Flyover027]

Far and away the best single analysis I have read. I am particularly impressed the way he starts off..namely that pollsters err primarily because they approach the ‘science’ from a numbers perspective rather than from the human ‘intensity’ vantage. It’s one of the problems that all social sciences suffer from...an inferiority complex relative to the so-called ‘hard sciences’..so social scientists wrap themselves in mathematical modeling mush (to show in a ‘me-too’ fashion that their science can also have complex graph ridden models just like their big brother scientists in chemistry, etc) while missing the common sense ‘earth of experience’ thinking and analysis so necessary for good science. Just to carry this one step further..and hang with me here folks, I’ll be getting back to the article and its predictions, but let me take this concept of misuse of math in the social sciences (which includes polling) a bit further. It’s as if social scientists notice that the larger the fire, the more fire engines..and so by analogy, they confuse cause and effect and come up with the solution that to reduce the size of future fires, let’s just send less fire engines. They are so caught up in their math models, they lose touch with human experience. Now we all see the humor in suggesting that if we but send less fire engines fires will assuredly be smaller. But when it comes to social ‘issues’ and where dependent and independent variables become less ‘obvious’, by analogy, we have social scientists making assertions that in truth are just as stupid as the fire engine example..it’s just harder for the average reader to detect the absurdity...

And so this article hits directly at the errors of national pollsters...their failure to identify some important ‘intensities’ that are different for this election than any other.. such as the PUMA and Palin effects.

I think the PUMA effect and the Palin effect indeed are going to prove very strong indeed..more than any of the polsters are accounting for.

And his predictions regarding the media calling states like PA for Obama early as part of their advocacy agenda are dead on....

So I’m stocking up on beer and popcorn..and prolly won’t make the office in the AM..gonna be a looong night..but the story will have a happy ending.

[mykdsmom]

Thanks for posting this, it makes a lot of sense.

My favorite sentence was: When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. This will just be the icing on the cake of a McCain win.

[MeekOneGOP]

The ONLY Poll that matters is the one that happens today!!

Get out there and show these lyin' &%$#@&%^ how wrong they are !!!

- - - - - -

Don't Listen to the Media and Polls! Get Out There and VOTE! Turnout is KEY !!!!

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

My take is that the MSM / Lamestream Media is out to suppress the GOP vote.

They are WAAAAAAYYYY overpolling Democraps in their polls, IGNORING factual stories negative for Obama and doing EVERYTHING they can to SMEAR McCain and especially PALIN with their lies.

I think this will blow up in their faces. When GOP voters see the tainted polls slanted to favor Socialist Obama, the GOP fence-sitters will crawl across broken glass to KEEP the Socialist Obama outta the White House !!!

Here in Texas, the first day of Early Voting set ALL TIME records for turnout. ALMOST DOUBLE the old record (up almost 80%) !!!!

[Terry Mross]

Why are they so far off? Because the “reporters” are “reporting” what they “hope” will happen.

[truthandlife]

BUMP