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Pennsylvania, what happened? Flame Away

Posted on 11/04/2008 11:11:57 PM PST by HamiltonJay

I may write on this topic one more time when the final few percentage points of precincts are in and I have a little more time to analyse.

That however will be it, so you can flame away at me all you want.

As most of you know I saw PA falling for McCain, very comfortably, obviously that has not happened. So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

Feel free to yell, kick, scream, flame whatever you wish at me IN THIS THREAD, if that helps you get through the night. Know that I never tried to purposely deceive any of you, but only report what I was seeing. My flaw was it seems not seeing enough of what was going on out east, or that overall turnout in PA was going to be down.

Now, I know that people will rehash this election and the McCain campaign for a long time, for their choice of fighting for PA. I had no influence or no responsibility for the campaign or their decisions, however I can see even now why they fought for PA. Did time and money in PA cost us VA or OH of FL? Perhaps, but given its 1:30 in the morning and MONTANA still hasn't been called I'd say its pretty clear blaming the election loss soley on drawing the line in the sand in PA is rather laughable.

The election is over, and Fauxbama did take PA by what looks to be a 10+ point margin. I found that unbelievable, and still find this shocking to this day. But it happened, the pollsters were right, I was wrong, and as such I eat my humble pie.

I will now explain what I personally saw, and please stick with me, because much of what I personally witnessed happening was true and has been confirmed by the results. WHere I failed was projecting what I was first hand seeing out into other areas of PA I had not been first hand.

I live in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and I noticed trending here that support for Fauxbama was weaker than Kerry, noticably weaker. Annecdotal evidence, but evidence that certainly gave me pause to the notions that Fauxbama was carrying Kerry levels of support. Kerry had squeaked by so I viewed this as a good thing. 144,000 or so votes was all he carried.

Turns out in the results I was right about what I saw, just not remotely right on the projections out.

The following 7 counties make up the Pittsburgh area, here are the final results of this election and the last election for them Percentages.. I have posted real numbers in (Allegheny)Pittsburgh, to illustrate a point I will make following this:

Allegheny: M 41.7(254,000) B 42.1(272,000) F 57.4(350,000) K 57.2(369,000) 96,000 93,000

Fayette: M 49.6% Bush 45.8% F 49.3% Kerry 53.2%

Greene: M 49.5% Bush 50% F 48.9% Kerry 49.3%

Washington: M 51.8% Bush 49.6% F 47% Kerry 50.1%

Beaver: M 50.9% Bush 48.4% F 47.8% Kerry 51.1%

Armstrong: M 61.4% Bush 60.9% F 37.2% Kerry 38.7%

Butler: M 63.1% Bush 64.9% F 35.7% Kerry 35.2%

Westmoreland: M 57.8% Bush 56% F 41.2% Kerry 43.5%

Now as you can tell by these numbers McCain actually outperformed Bush in the majority of these counties, and Fauxbama underperformed Kerry in the majority of these counties. Now yes, these margins were generally not huge, Given the Kerry and Gore victories has been so close this certainly suggested Fauxbama was in trouble, the percentage shifts did not need to be huge to cost the Dem the state, less than 2000 votes per county on average was all it would take.

Obviously he wasn't in trouble he won the state by 642424 votes, a rather big spread over the 144ish that Kerry won by or the 205k that Gore won by. However he didn't gain on that spread in terms of numbers in the Pittsburgh region over Kerry. So what was going on in the pittsburgh region clearly was not reflective of much of the state.

Erie for example went to Fauxbama by 25,000 votes, where is Kerry won it by only 10,000. SO while he was definately having issues here in the Pittsburgh region, he was not having the same issues elsewhere.

So, there you have it, I blew it, and at this late hour, that's about the best I can figure out as to why I blew it so badly.

So, flame away, I'll go eat my crow and humble pie, and get some sleep. This battle has ended with us in solid defeat.. tommorrow the next battle begins.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: pa2008
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Well there you go guys. I've put on my fireproof undies, flame away. I'll not get into discussions this is my piece on this for now, I may write another one after I have more time and the full results are in, but that's it for now.
1 posted on 11/04/2008 11:11:57 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

ACORN
A wishy washy candidate.


2 posted on 11/04/2008 11:13:27 PM PST by Def Conservative (Run and hide 08)
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To: HamiltonJay

ACORN!


3 posted on 11/04/2008 11:13:53 PM PST by blondee123 (Never acknowledge a Marxist as President of the United States of America!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Fox News was showing how the only demographic in PA that went for McCain was white Catholics, and that was just by a relatively small margin. Still don’t understand how over 40% of Catholics could defy a majority of American bishops and vote for someone who openly favors baby killing, but that’s another story I suppose...


4 posted on 11/04/2008 11:15:40 PM PST by Elvina (The average IQ in America is 100. Half are operating in the double-digits --as seen tonight.)
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To: HamiltonJay
Pennsylvanians must love to be insulted. Too bad McCain didn't insult them a few times, maybe he could have won them over.

BTW, did Murtha win?

5 posted on 11/04/2008 11:16:11 PM PST by FrdmLvr (What fresh hell is this?)
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To: HamiltonJay

Personally, I think a lot of conservative voters were so disgusted after the bailout mess that they simply chose to stay home. They didn’t have a dog in this race.


6 posted on 11/04/2008 11:16:13 PM PST by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK, OBAMA IS JUST CREEPY!)
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To: Elvina

voter fraud, remember that cnn video of the guy saying he voted multiple times already


7 posted on 11/04/2008 11:16:42 PM PST by 4rcane
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To: FrdmLvr

Yes, Murtha won comfortably.


8 posted on 11/04/2008 11:16:59 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

We’re only sorry about the results. We still appreciate YOU.


9 posted on 11/04/2008 11:17:31 PM PST by Faith
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To: FrdmLvr

Yes, Murtha won big.

Pennsylvanians apparently have no pride.

It okay, HJ. A lot of us didn’t buy the polls.


10 posted on 11/04/2008 11:17:33 PM PST by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK, OBAMA IS JUST CREEPY!)
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To: FrdmLvr
BTW, did Murtha win?

Yeah. We put a double whammy on the troops tonight.

11 posted on 11/04/2008 11:17:36 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (I'm voting for McCain/Palin so I can look my grandchildren in the eyes when I tell them I'm sorry.)
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To: HamiltonJay

hang in there pal. we all got our ass kicked today. go to sleep. we’ve got bigger problems than a lost election or a bad prediction. this nation is in mortal danger from enemies foreign and domestic. i’m now going to take my own advice and go to bed. it’s been a long night for all of us. later.


12 posted on 11/04/2008 11:17:40 PM PST by mick
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To: HamiltonJay

Yeah, I made the same prediction to my lib relatives, they thought I was nuts, and I guess I was.

Really surprises me. I am wondering whether the Pennsylvania I had in mind is not the Pennsylvania that I knew, but then I realize that with all the other factors going on (Bush, bailout), I’m thinking this was more of a “throw the bastards out” vote rather than an endorsement of Obama.

Four years from now, we’ll see how PA responds.

Hopefully by then I’ll be back living in the state and can help the tallies. :)


13 posted on 11/04/2008 11:18:30 PM PST by Claud
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To: HamiltonJay

recriminations are useless at this point.
You were in the fight and it appears after ‘06 and ‘08 that we have some real uphill climbs to ever see PA in the right column again.
None of that is your fault and apparently it’s creeping all over the country.


14 posted on 11/04/2008 11:18:57 PM PST by WoodstockCat (General Honore: "The storm gets a vote... We're not stuck on stupid.")
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To: 4rcane

Sorry guys, but the voter fraud or conservative turnout not happening just doesn’t add up too heavily based on the numbers. I’m sure there was fraud, there is always some, but nothing to indicate it was more or less than any time in the past.

Total election turnout was down only 120,000 votes across the state from ‘04, so there could have been some republcan depression, but not a whole lot and certainly not 600K votes plus worth. 3rd parties did get about 60,000 votes in 08 vs 33,000 in 04, with Nader getting the Bulk this time and Barr getting about 18k.


15 posted on 11/04/2008 11:19:17 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: FrdmLvr

Yeh..Fat Jack won...his mindless racist redneck constituents voted his lard arse back in in spite of his ridiculing them. Well they deserve him.


16 posted on 11/04/2008 11:19:35 PM PST by tflabo (:)
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To: HamiltonJay

I’m not mad at the people who put out the projections... *any* of you.

I AM mad at the LIEbral media who covered for BO for the last two years. I AM mad at the selfish, ignorant sheeple who voted for the flimsy “hope and change”, ignored all the warning signs and threw the entire nation under the bus.


17 posted on 11/04/2008 11:19:46 PM PST by Marie (Palin/Rush '12)
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To: HamiltonJay

Ehh...dude...McCain was a longshot to begin with, PA was just as good a place to roll the dice as MI was, this was the payback Election for 8yrs of GWB.

Add in 700 million bucks, MSM media fawning and a Nominee that most Conservatives viewed as what ends up in the cat litter box and it does not take Betty Crocker to figure out what happened.

Not your fault my man, if Mac had tried the same thing in MI,WI or MN, the same result would have happened.


18 posted on 11/04/2008 11:19:55 PM PST by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: Elvina

Many Catholics are so badly taught today, it’s probably not surprising.

Maybe a round of nice excommunications would be helpful.


19 posted on 11/04/2008 11:20:00 PM PST by Claud
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To: HamiltonJay
No apologies necessary. I appreciate you sharing your insights.
20 posted on 11/04/2008 11:20:37 PM PST by Red Boots
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To: HamiltonJay
I never thought it was as high as 15 points for obama or as low as the McCain camp suggested for obama, two or three points. Neither seemed accurate.

It seemed to me McCain was wasting his time on PA and should have been campaigning in other states, but it was obvious they weren't going to change their strategy. too bad.

21 posted on 11/04/2008 11:20:48 PM PST by TAdams8591 (McCain/Palin ' 08 (Obama IS a socialist!))
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To: HamiltonJay

It wasn’t just PA. It was also FL, VA, OH, CO and NV.

We got shelled.

Whatever the lesson is, it is not about small differences in tactics.

We got beat big. We must make big changes in how we do things.


22 posted on 11/04/2008 11:20:50 PM PST by rogue yam
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To: Def Conservative
ACORN indeed!

Another victim tonight is American democracy. With he widespread practice of early voting, voting without verification, voting multiple times how can you respect the validity of these results. We have no effective to monior who votes, how many times they vote or even if they are citizens of this country.

23 posted on 11/04/2008 11:20:52 PM PST by Sir_Humphrey (With Obama in the White House for the first time I am ashamed to be an American)
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To: HamiltonJay

I won’t flame anyone that held onto believing McCain was going to win. There is no way 0bama should have won the majority. I have to go to bed. I am still stunned. I am going to not watch the news for several years now. 0bama doesn’t exist in my world. I will tend to my business. When I visit the Free Republic I will stick to the social areas from now on. I simply do not care to live in an 0bama Nation. Thank God, I am in a Red State.


24 posted on 11/04/2008 11:21:48 PM PST by YdontUleaveLibs (Reason is out to lunch. How may I help you?)
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To: HamiltonJay

ACORN for starters was much deeper into voter fraud then any of us imagined. Votes didn’t materialize in parts of the state we needed them. Too many Republicans stayed home who were not energized by McCain and saw all the hits against Palin that took their toll.

Host of reasons but maybe this Party has finally learned you cannot give the nomination to someone as a reward like we did to Dole in 1996 (I voted for Phil Gramm in TX) or McCain in 2008.

We need strong candidates that will take on the other side during an election and not reach across the aisle to their opponent and talk about what a nice guy he was and not to be afraid of him.

We need leaders who are not afraid to stand up!


25 posted on 11/04/2008 11:22:17 PM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: HamiltonJay
Well there you go guys. I've put on my fireproof undies, flame away.

No, no. If you're going to be a political prognosticator and forecaster, you mustn't apologize - you have to act like you never said it =).
26 posted on 11/04/2008 11:23:40 PM PST by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: HamiltonJay

Pennsylvania had an opportunity to send a message to the rest of the country that they care more about the coal industry than party loyalty. They failed. Let Obama bankrupt them for all I care.


27 posted on 11/04/2008 11:23:56 PM PST by JoeRed
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To: HamiltonJay

Bottom line...Obama had a Ground Game...he beat Hillary with it...and improved upon it with technology and more people for beating McCain! It is about face to face, phone call to phone call...it is about the people...not ads, not front page, not news...it is about connecting...BO did it!


28 posted on 11/04/2008 11:24:35 PM PST by An American! (Proud To Be An American!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Forgot to add.... here are my extended thoughts.... What is the new Grass Roots movement? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2125428/posts


29 posted on 11/04/2008 11:25:44 PM PST by An American! (Proud To Be An American!)
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To: HamiltonJay
You tried. You didn't do it. There were even a few cornballs around here predicting McCain landslides. This is one of the most resounding electoral defeats I've ever seen, going back to maybe 1964. The GOP got killed everywhere for the second straight cycle. It's hideous.

Can we stop with the Rino’s now and grow a pair?

30 posted on 11/04/2008 11:25:49 PM PST by Luke21
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To: HamiltonJay

I have no intention of flaming you. Many of us saw different trends developing than what actually happened. I figured that the voters of PA have been called racist rednecks and the Democrats want to kill the coal industry, surely there will be opposition to this, right? Instead, they proved that no, they’re not bothered by insults and their livelihood being destroyed. It’s not your fault.


31 posted on 11/04/2008 11:27:30 PM PST by GiveEmDubya (Thanks a bunch, America)
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To: HamiltonJay

I have another comment. Why are we allowing NH and Iowa to pick our candidates for the Republican Party when BOTH states went to the Dems. Time to dump Iowa and NH as first in the Nation IMHO!

Why not Oklahoma? For the FIRST time Oklahoman Republicans control the OK Senate in the history of the State, we kept the OK House, we took back a Corporation Commission seat and kept the other one, returned Sen Inhofe to the Senate, sent back 4/5 House Members, and voted for McCain 66 - 33.


32 posted on 11/04/2008 11:28:04 PM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: HamiltonJay

When all those coal miners start whining and crying ‘cause they don’t have a job, I don’t even want to hear it. The “Rust Belt” is the “Rust Belt” for a reason. To paraphrase Rev. Wright, “their chickens will have come home to roost”.


33 posted on 11/04/2008 11:28:25 PM PST by singfreedom
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To: Luke21

Well, it certainly looks to me that others were right, the economy trumped everything, period.

Sadly it trumped it at a time when this was the candidate the other side had. But enough, off to bed... Sleep well folks, this battle is over, tommorrow we pick up the pieces and start the battle anew.


34 posted on 11/04/2008 11:29:21 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: PhiKapMom

“I have another comment. Why are we allowing NH and Iowa to pick our candidates for the Republican Party when BOTH states went to the Dems. Time to dump Iowa and NH as first in the Nation IMHO!”

Amen!!! Anybody at the RNC hear that or care????


35 posted on 11/04/2008 11:32:20 PM PST by The South Texan (The Drive By Media is America's worst enemy and American people don't know it.)
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To: HamiltonJay

It’s cool, you just got got up in wishful thinking. Obviously McCain was never close in PA.

Acorn, bailout, that has nothing to do with it. It’s a state that leans rat, period. A rat is winning the country he’s gonna be taking PA.

Obama has been leading for all election except during the Palin bounce.


36 posted on 11/04/2008 11:32:41 PM PST by Impy (Welcome to the USSA)
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To: HamiltonJay
If McCain had won, conservatism would be badly wounded ...

Two failures tonight ...

Bipartisanship, reaching across the aisle and the nonsense that you ‘capture the center’ that way, big time up in flames. McCain's inherent fault.

Compassionate Conservatives, meaning not standing up and fighting for your programs and beliefs, never a winner to make yourself into the opposition's punching bag. Both deader than the doornail. Bush's inherent fault.

Conservatism won ... And lives to fight another day. Crystal clear conservative message that broadcast crystal clear first principles, is the way forward.

37 posted on 11/04/2008 11:36:38 PM PST by Tarpon (Barack Obama will ban all the guns he has the votes for ...)
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To: KansasGirl
I wonder how they and Ohio and others will feel if they start to lose their jobs due to BHO’s cap and trade on Coal plants and other jobs tied to it.

Also, I imagine the new dem congress will pass the .18 cent gas tax they thought was a good idea.

38 posted on 11/04/2008 11:36:42 PM PST by Glacier Honey (`)
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To: HamiltonJay

Dont feel bad I was telling everyone that the Hillary
votes was going to win it for Mccain,shows you what I
know.I would say we will get them in four years but
hell we may not have a country in four years.!!!!


39 posted on 11/04/2008 11:40:04 PM PST by MATSEVAH
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To: GiveEmDubya; HamiltonJay

I’m out west in Utah, but I grew up in southeastern PA back in the days when the Philly suburbs were still reliably Republican. It seems like we were fighting against a rather fierce “perfect storm” of mediascum propaganda, Bush-fatigue, economic mess, Democrat perfidy and fraud, and several other factors.

I have to wonder how many PA voters were even aware of Obama/Biden hostility to the survival of the coal industry, Murtha disparagement of PA voters as racists and rednecks, Obama/Biden extreme left views, etc.

I doubt that the mediascum let that info get through very widely, and probably only people on sites like FR even had much awareness of stuff like that.


40 posted on 11/04/2008 11:40:19 PM PST by Enchante (The real "bitter clingers" are on the LEFT -- ranting Obamabots clinging to delusions!!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Shutting down coal resonated in Pittsburg, did not resonate in Philly?


41 posted on 11/04/2008 11:40:30 PM PST by Lexinom
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To: Impy
It’s a state that leans rat, period.

Actually, in many counties, PA votes Conservative, unfortunately those counties are sparcely populated.

42 posted on 11/04/2008 11:40:43 PM PST by Dustbunny (Freedom prospers when religion is vibrant and the rule of law under God is acknowledged. The Gipper)
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To: PhiKapMom
PhiKap, did Tom Cole win? I couldn't even listen to KTOK. It was just too depressing!
43 posted on 11/04/2008 11:45:20 PM PST by singfreedom
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To: FrdmLvr

Murtha won. He’s an incumbent. Incumbents don’t lose simply because of a few dumb statements.


44 posted on 11/04/2008 11:47:45 PM PST by ari-freedom (Paint your finger purple on Tuesday!)
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To: PhiKapMom
Why are we allowing NH and Iowa to pick our candidates for the Republican Party when BOTH states went to the Dems.

Hell, I am an Iowan and yet I can't figure out why the GOP lets this state of losers still get the first caucus! The state's Republican apparatus has ossified to the point of debility, so let 'em throw as big a fit as they want... give the first one to GA or TX.

45 posted on 11/04/2008 11:50:23 PM PST by niteowl77 (The niteowl77s: parents who support those who support their soldier.)
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To: PhiKapMom
PhiKap, did Tom Cole win? I couldn't even listen to KTOK. It was just too depressing!
46 posted on 11/04/2008 11:52:32 PM PST by singfreedom
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To: YdontUleaveLibs

At least you live in a red state. I live in Florida which I thought was a red state but today’s results proved me terribly wrong.


47 posted on 11/05/2008 12:00:28 AM PST by princeofdarkness (Ronald Reagan- "Trust But Verify" MSM- "Report, Lie, Then Crucify")
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To: singfreedom

Tom Cole won. We returned 4/5 Republicans to the House — same as before.

Republicans had a great night in OK.


48 posted on 11/05/2008 12:01:06 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: niteowl77

I as disgusted during the primary season when Iowa kept getting mad when candidates didn’t come in the state all the time and how they were going to punish them and ditto NH and then MI.

I am fed up and think 55 million other Republicans should be too that we allow blue states to pick our nominee.

Wonder how we go about changing it? I am willing to start a petition or whatever it takes. We have 3 years to get it changed.


49 posted on 11/05/2008 12:04:09 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: PhiKapMom
Wonderful! Now, if we can just get rid of Porky Boren’s boy, we'll have it licked. Kinda nice being in one of the few states that paid attention, isn't it? Did you do any campaign work this time?
50 posted on 11/05/2008 12:05:04 AM PST by singfreedom
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