Posted on 11/05/2008 2:32:26 AM PST by LS
Two weeks ago, if I had told you that deep red precincts would turn out at record levels, you would have thought that John McCain would not only win, but that he might win by a comfortable margin.
Well, didn't happen. The "turnout model" of politics is officially dead---the one that says if you get "your people" to the polls, you win. The trouble is, they have to really be "your people."
I went downtown to count votes at 7:00. Our whole team thought not only had we won Dayton, but OH, and probably---with turnout rates like that---indicated McCain would do very well. I can't tell you how excited they were based on the turnout. In Miamisburg, two very Republican precincts had voted out 75% by 5:00 in the evening. We got a report from a Trotwood Republican precinct that had voted at an 80% clip. Darke County called in saying they were at near-record 80%.
One problem: our "Republicans" voted Dem by 33%! Montgomery Co., which went for Kerry by 2% when he lost, went for Obama by 33!!
I don't know what you do when you turn out a deep red precinct at 80% and find out that 1/3 of the Republicans voted for the Dem.
Our state legislature candidates killed the Dems. Our local candidates did VERY well.
Obviously the "hope" and "change" or Bush hatred, or concern over the economy was big. But explain this:
How does a man, according to Fox exit polls, who favors infanticide, taxing everyone over $120,000, handing 1/3 of Jerusalem to the PLO, and destroying the American coal industry get 2/3s of the voters to say "He shares my values?"
At the national level we got killed. It wasn't quite as bad in the House---many races that were thought to be lost appear to have been saved, but we also lost a number where we were actually leading. The Libby Dole loss to me was a stunner, esp. the margin. Sununu's margin too, although I didn't stay up till the end.
The Republican Party not only has to obviously rebuild, but the very models on which we had won election after election are in doubt: what's the point of the "turnout" model if 1/3 of your people vote for the other guy?
Finally---and I know I don't have credibility here (Freeper Captain Kirk was dead on)---the national numbers suggest that there was a "reverse Bradley," a guilt vote. This could account for some of the R defections.
I'm eating macaca. So pile on.
But you can trust me on this: we all have a lot more to worry about now than who was the best political prognosticator. God save our once-great nation.
perhaps the whole idea of a bradley effect caused an anti-bradley effect.
Did you factor in the illegal voting?
All of these negative atributes regarding the President-elect are know to all here but they were almost never mentioned by the MSM or by the Republican candidate. People aren’t going to vote against someone without being told what’s wrong with him.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
As I see it, the biggest winner last night was Governor Palin. She actually gets to go home to a beautiful place and (maybe) return to a normal life. I wish her and her family the best. The rest of them can go to hell for all I care.
i think it boils down to the fact that McCain was a lousy candidate that couldn’t make a case for himself if it was handed to him on a teleprompter. Besides, all that annoying blinking he did during the debate almost made me vote for Obama! :P
I just think the Republican party did this on purpose. It’s the only explanation as to how FUBARed this was. When McCain started to take the lead in the primaries, I said to myself..”oh no, BOB DOLE ALL OVER AGAIN!”
Sad to say but I was right. Republicans need a strong and articulate conservative leader. No more RINOS like BUSH and McCAIN!
I posted that McCain would win OH and my reasons and I was dead wrong. Now I just hope they get what they wanted and voted themselves out of their jobs. I could be dead wrong again but I think Toledo, oh unemployment rate will go to 15% or more it’s at 9.9% now, the businesses that are here are going to continue to go to TX.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
so now today is historic, the whole world loves us and no pesky riots. They probably were also worried about those.
they will have to learn the hard way. Americans have been spoiled too much.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
An argument can be made we lost this election eight years ago. After Bush was inaugurated, the Drive-By Media collectively set about demonizing anything Republican 24/7. For eight solid years it was two against one. Very few politicians can withstand that kind of assault.
Our fight is against the Media. It always has been, imo.
I can't explain any self described republican voting for Obama but I will observe that McCain was a very, very flawed candidate and the wrong guy to put up in our current environment.
In other words I suspect that that kind of vote was mostly a vote against McCain (and specifically the bail out, which McCain closely associated himself with) rather than a vote for Obama by voters that don't follow this stuff as closely as we do here.
The only comparsion I can draw on is I know a lot of "republicans" who voted for Carter simply because he wasn't Ford.
I thought it would be in the back of people’s mind’s, and it would be the deciding factor. Guess not. I also thought that winning the majority of the elderly and whites would clinch it for McCain, but that didn’t happen either. It normally would have. I don’t know how men overall voted..... Probably McCain majority as well. I haven’t felt this down since 1992.....
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Its not your fault that 30% of the Republicans that turned out today proved to be as stupid and gullible as Democrats or that our candidate was...well....a bit suboptimal. There will be much weaping and gnashing of teeth when the see what they’ve really voted for.
I’d rather listen to a Pollyanna than a Puddlglum. At least false hope encourages us to keep fighting.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
NC is a mystery to me. Four years ago they voted against John Edwards. Today they vote for Obama?
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