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Oil Could Hit $35/Bbl Without Major OPEC Cuts
Dow Jones Newswire via Rig Zone ^ | November 21, 2008 | Brian Baskin

Posted on 11/21/2008 9:17:28 AM PST by thackney

Oil prices are likely to sink as low as $35 a barrel without a massive production cut from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Lawrence Eagles, head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said Friday.

OPEC needs to cut 3 million barrels a day to compensate for the bleak global economic outlook, which is expected to result next year in the

first contraction to oil demand since the early 1980s. The group agreed in October to reduce output by 1.5 million barrels a day, but OPEC is unlikely to successfully make further cuts quickly enough to prevent further declines in oil prices, Eagles said in a conference call.

"I can't see how they can manage to keep prices at a stable level," unless the group agrees in advance to continually cut production so long as oil remains below a certain level, Eagles said. OPEC is unlikely to adopt that tactic, known as a price band mechanism, he said.

Oil prices have plunged below $50 a barrel this week, to the lowest point since May 2005, just four months after reaching record highs above $145...

(Excerpt) Read more at rigzone.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; energyprices; oil; opec
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1 posted on 11/21/2008 9:17:30 AM PST by thackney
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To: thackney

Start building breeder reactors and push it to $5.00 a barrel.


2 posted on 11/21/2008 9:19:24 AM PST by org.whodat (Conservatives don't vote for Bailouts! Republicans do!)
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To: thackney

Gold is what you want. The liquidations to pay client redemptions is done. With its break of $771 this morning, Gold is likely starting a big move to $920 in the short term. After that too much is dependent on what Obama does to speculate.


3 posted on 11/21/2008 9:20:38 AM PST by montag813 (www.FreepShop.com)
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To: thackney

The lower the prices go the more expensive it becomes for the companies to drill for and refine the stuff. The marginal costs will solve this at some point.

Still, $110 plus drop in prices is going to mean gas at $1.50.

Too bad no one has any money since those SUVs and pickups can be had for really cheap!


4 posted on 11/21/2008 9:23:16 AM PST by misterrob (Smooth talkers win at singles bars and in politics .. often with similar outcomes for the listener)
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To: org.whodat
Very little oil is used to generate electrical power. Much of what is used is refinery leftovers like petroleum coke and residual oil after fuels like gasoline and diesel have been removed from the crude oil.

U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2006

5 posted on 11/21/2008 9:23:26 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Unleaded Regular is $1.579 in NE Oklahoma today.


6 posted on 11/21/2008 9:24:56 AM PST by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: org.whodat

That’s exactly what we need. When China and India get out of the slump, energy prices are going right back up.

...uh...I mean...It’s all Bush’s fault! It’s a conspiracy! Dick Cheney diabolically pulled supply and demand out of equilibrium from his underground Halliburton bunker


7 posted on 11/21/2008 9:25:05 AM PST by ksm1
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To: thackney

Good. We paid too much for too long.


8 posted on 11/21/2008 9:26:09 AM PST by mysterio
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To: mysterio
high prices bring low prices

low prices bring....

And so the long running roller coaster ride continues.

9 posted on 11/21/2008 9:27:56 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Has nothing to do with my statement, Hydrogen Fueled cars become viable with cheaper electrical power.


10 posted on 11/21/2008 9:28:24 AM PST by org.whodat (Conservatives don't vote for Bailouts! Republicans do!)
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To: thackney

It will continue until we start building infrastructure to take demand pressure off of oil. Hopefully, we will concentrate on making more of our own energy.


11 posted on 11/21/2008 9:29:07 AM PST by mysterio
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To: org.whodat

Sure, if you assume a couple leaps in a couple different technologies then almost anything is possible.


12 posted on 11/21/2008 9:30:09 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: mysterio

When the economy recovers, the price will go right back up without an increase in domestic supply. However, the economy isn’t going to rebound in the short term unless Obama suddenly starts reading Thomas Sowell, which is highly unlikely.

I don’t think $35/b is the bottom for oil. I think it will go much lower than that in the short term. It won’t matter what Opec does.


13 posted on 11/21/2008 9:31:06 AM PST by perfect_rovian_storm
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To: mysterio
Hopefully, we will concentrate on making more of our own energy.

I suspect the combination of the economy, fuel prices and the recently elected administration, we should expect to see our dependency on foreign nations to rise, not fall.

14 posted on 11/21/2008 9:31:36 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

You’re right. However, the increased use of nuclear power would free coal for coal-to-liquids conversions. This would give OPEC less control over our economy.


15 posted on 11/21/2008 9:35:53 AM PST by JamesP81 (A loyal son of the great commonwealth of Kentucky)
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To: org.whodat

“Has nothing to do with my statement, Hydrogen Fueled cars become viable with cheaper electrical power.”

Agree with you that more nuclear (leading to cheaper electricity) would indirectly reduce demand for oil. For example, it seems to me that less home heating oil would be used in the northeast if it was cheaper to use electricity for such.


16 posted on 11/21/2008 9:36:21 AM PST by Texan Tory
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To: thackney
You need no assumption that in the near term, cheap electrical power works well in recharging electrical cars. Either way, the end of oil burning cars needs to be the goal.
17 posted on 11/21/2008 9:38:22 AM PST by org.whodat (Conservatives don't vote for Bailouts! Republicans do!)
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To: thackney

The great thing about the price drop is that at $40/bbl, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Venezuala have much less money to fund mischief and violence.

It won’t happen, but I would love to see a big tariff on imported oil combined with a cut in income taxes to make it revenue neutral. That would encourage domestic production, and take the profits away from oil exporters, while encouraging productive economic activity at home.


18 posted on 11/21/2008 9:39:09 AM PST by CaptainMorgantown
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To: thackney

We need to expand that yellow wedge ... (yellow cake?)


19 posted on 11/21/2008 9:40:07 AM PST by ArrogantBustard (Western Civilization is Aborting, Buggering, and Contracepting itself out of existence.)
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To: Texan Tory
True, I have never understood the stupid government and the annual kenndy welfare program of heating oil. We could have built several reactors for the money burnt heating homes.
20 posted on 11/21/2008 9:40:29 AM PST by org.whodat (Conservatives don't vote for Bailouts! Republicans do!)
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