I like specific and bold predictions like this. You're saying that you expect Coleman to win by 50 votes with a standard deviation of 12.5.
I'm not nearly as bold as you. I'd increase that standard deviation. I'm also increasing my Coleman margin.
Coleman by 130 with a standard deviation of 35.
Today was a very good day for Coleman. Your bet is looking better than mine right now.
Coleman seems to be making many more challenges now, though. I suspect he’s trying to make sure that there’s never a point during the recount where he slips below Coleman.
Big psychological/political barrier to overcome if Franken goes up by even one vote at any point during the recount, so Coleman is smart to do this.
My new over/under is 110. You still taking the over?