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Strategic Motivations for the Mumbai Attack
StratFor ^ | December 1, 2008 | George Friedman

Posted on 12/02/2008 1:40:51 AM PST by MimirsWell

Last Wednesday evening, a group of Islamist operatives carried out a complex terror operation in the Indian city of Mumbai. The attack was not complex because of the weapons used or its size, but in the apparent training, multiple methods of approaching the city and excellent operational security and discipline in the final phases of the operation, when the last remaining attackers held out in the Taj Mahal hotel for several days. The operational goal of the attack clearly was to cause as many casualties as possible, particularly among Jews and well-to-do guests of five-star hotels. But attacks on various other targets, from railroad stations to hospitals, indicate that the more general purpose was to spread terror in a major Indian city.

While it is not clear precisely who carried out the Mumbai attack, two separate units apparently were involved. One group, possibly consisting of Indian Muslims, was established in Mumbai ahead of the attacks. The second group appears to have just arrived. It traveled via ship from Karachi, Pakistan, later hijacked a small Indian vessel to get past Indian coastal patrols, and ultimately landed near Mumbai.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: gwot; india; mumbai; pakistan
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Awesome analysis by StratFor as usual. I think this analysis, if true will point fingers straight at the Pakistani military establishment and the ISI. There is now enough motivation. So what is the US going to force India to do?
1 posted on 12/02/2008 1:40:52 AM PST by MimirsWell
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More news that corroborates the above analysis:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/3540095/Mumbai-attacks-Rift-between-Pakistan-army-and-government-Bombay-India.html


2 posted on 12/02/2008 1:41:49 AM PST by MimirsWell
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Taliban are 'patriots,' says Pakistani Army official

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/12/taliban_are_patriots.php
3 posted on 12/02/2008 1:44:36 AM PST by MimirsWell
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To: MimirsWell

Discussions of strategic motivations for terrorist acts are specious; terrorists, so-called, act simply out of a restless and insatiable lust to spill the blood of others. Their murderous impulses are unchecked by even the most rudimentary moral compass; their putative rationale always comes after the fact - the fact that there are simply ineffectual human beings in the world who love more than anything to kill others as a balm to their deeply seated feelings of personal inadequacy.


4 posted on 12/02/2008 2:27:15 AM PST by Jack Hammer (here)
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To: Jack Hammer
>"terrorists, so-called, act simply out of a restless and insatiable lust to spill the blood of others. "

Actually their "religion" COMMANDS them to murder.

iSlime declared WAR against humanity 1400 years ago. When will Humanity declare WAR against iSlime?

5 posted on 12/02/2008 2:46:51 AM PST by rawcatslyentist (I will stand with the Muslims ~B Hussein Obomunist ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Verito Possumus~Verified Sleeper!)
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To: MimirsWell

What a mess!


6 posted on 12/02/2008 2:50:41 AM PST by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: MimirsWell

I don’t think this really discusses their strategic motivations; obviously, their motivation is to take over and Islamify India, and the strategy is simply one ofconstant attacks and constant undermining of India’s stability and prosperity.

The article does give a good analysis of the possible responses by India and the US, and their effect on Pakistan. But ultimately, the author concludes by indicating that all of them would be ineffective or unacceptable.

India is coming up on elections, and the author thinks Indians will demand a firm response and that this will affect the elections, too, making the parties more hawkish. Personally, I think that the long history of constant pressure not to respond will have a different result. Indians may be angry now, but I wouldn’t be in the least surprised to see the more Islamic-favorable parties or candidates end up with more power in the end. The US left and Islamics kept up a constant drumbeat against the Iraq war and against attempts to combat Islam militarily, with the result that the US elected somebody who is arguably a Muslim and at the very least sympathetic to Islam, and who furthermore is surrounded and funded by radical Muslims. In other words, US voters chose appeasement.

Indian voters are being prepped to do the same. In the US, Islam needed only one attack on our territory; we did what we are urging the Indians to do now, that is, we ramped up security to the point where it is inconvenient and uncomfortable for our own citizens, and then began to make soothing noises towards Islam. Feeling safer, a major political party then dismissed the whole problem as a fevered dream of the Bush administration and picked a pro-Muslim candidate as an offering of appeasement. It was the voters, particularly our fifth column of Muslim-friendly black voters, combined with our white progressivist appeasers, who moved Islam into the White House.

I think the same thing will happen in India: more dithering, followed by massive domestic security measures, followed by the election of Muslim-friendly candidates and ultimate capitulation. The US hasn’t done the last quite yet, but it will, unless there’s a significant shift in direction, and I think this will be the pattern in the West and ultimately in India. I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I think this is what Rice will urge (maybe not the overt capitulation right away, but certainly the increased domestic security combined with more attention to “Islamic grievances”).


7 posted on 12/02/2008 3:12:42 AM PST by livius
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To: Jack Hammer

Jack Hammer wrote - “Discussions of strategic motivations for terrorist acts are specious; terrorists, so-called, act simply out of a restless and insatiable lust to spill the blood of others. Their murderous impulses are unchecked by even the most rudimentary moral compass; their putative rationale always comes after the fact - the fact that there are simply ineffectual human beings in the world who love more than anything to kill others as a balm to their deeply seated feelings of personal inadequacy.”

..... What you say may be absolutely true of the trigger pullers. But this is not random mindless violence; it is a war being waged against the West by extra-national and proxy organizations. The leaders who direct and plan these attacks do so with a great degree of planning and sophistication. They have a strategy.


8 posted on 12/02/2008 4:00:29 AM PST by Senator John Blutarski (The progress of government: republic, democracy, technocracy, bureaucracy, plutocracy, kleptocracy,)
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To: livius

I don’t think there is a chance in Hell that the Muslims are going to “Islamify” India. Out of the total population of 1.028 billion in India as of the 2001 census, the Hindus were 827 million and constituted 80.5% while the Muslim population stood at 138 million comprising 13.4% of the population.

Ghandi notwithstanding, the Hindus have a pretty long and bloodthirsty warrior rep of their own, and unlike us, they have a long history of dealing with Muslims and know all their sneaky little tricks.

I have no idea what the result of all this is going to be, but it’s going to get interesting.


9 posted on 12/02/2008 4:01:59 AM PST by Ronin
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To: Senator John Blutarski

“The leaders who direct and plan these attacks do so with a great degree of planning and sophistication. They have a strategy.”

Yep, they sure do - to kill as many innocents as possible in order to attempt, fruitlessly, to slake their mindless thirst for the blood of others.


10 posted on 12/02/2008 4:18:39 AM PST by Jack Hammer (here)
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To: MimirsWell
It traveled via ship from Karachi, Pakistan, later hijacked a small Indian vessel to get past Indian coastal patrols, and ultimately landed near Mumbai.

Which is an act of war. Didn't they kill the crew to gain the boat?

11 posted on 12/02/2008 4:31:14 AM PST by doodad
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To: MimirsWell; little jeremiah; Indian_Fighter_Kite; Knitting A Conundrum; Hari prasad

Kurukshetra War - Kali Yuga ping...

To be added to or removed from this ping list, please FReepmail Sir Francis Dashwood.

12 posted on 12/02/2008 4:35:32 AM PST by Sir Francis Dashwood (Arjuna, why have you have dropped your bow???)
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To: Ronin

I sure hope not, but once the Islamic population reaches 15%, all bets are off. That’s really all it takes to destabilize a country to the extent that even with a large majority of non-Muslims, the country is willing to accept Islamification. That’s how Islam has taken over everywhere.

I also thought it was interesting that Muslim gangsters in India are thought to be involved in this. Apparently, India has the equivalent of a Cosa Nostra, an organized crime group headed by a Muslim (and composed primarily of Muslims). He is thought to have been involved in the logistics and funding of the recent attack.

Mohammed was a bandit who made his living by raiding traveling merchants and vulnerable towns, and robbery and extortion was his way of life, so this thug is following in the footsteps of his master. India has a Muslim criminal subculture that is extremely powerful and will certainly support any domestic or foreign Islamification attempts, and I don’t think they have the police resources to really control this group (even in the US, fighting organized crime is a full-time business).

That said, I hope the Indians take some firm action. But with Rice on the way to visit them, I doubt that they will.


13 posted on 12/02/2008 4:36:28 AM PST by livius
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To: Jack Hammer

If you think that is all there is to terrorism, you are missing the big picture. These people don’t do anything without cold calculation. We underestimate them at our own peril. I feel sorry for the Indian government, who will be damned if they do retaliate and doomed if they don’t. Remember, after 9-11 the people of this country were united and resolved to take the fight to the terrorists. 7 years later, how’s that going for GWB?


14 posted on 12/02/2008 4:37:34 AM PST by Trust but Verify
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To: MimirsWell

......Finally, the United States’ situation in Afghanistan has now become enormously more complex......

The flip side is that in the event of a withdrawal from the western areas, we will be free to operate against targets of opportunity. The Pakis will be powerless to react and the bitching can be ignored.

The maneuver in chess is called a fork. The current situation is a triple fork. It was a brilliant maneuver because there is no real effective reaction. The only defense is to destroy known fanatic mosques, businesses, banks, residences. To win, there must be massive enemy death and collateral damage be damned.


15 posted on 12/02/2008 5:00:02 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Save America......... put out lots of waferin)
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To: Jack Hammer

You over look the reality that there are leaders who do think and plot and develop strategies . This analysis clearly indicates such action.


16 posted on 12/02/2008 5:02:18 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Save America......... put out lots of waferin)
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To: livius

......their motivation is to take over and Islamify India.....

No, that is not the goal. The goal is to control the Gulf and the wealth and most importantly, the Two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina.

The battle theater has been enlarged to include locations where a successful raid can be won with few resources and light casualties.

Time is not a factor.


17 posted on 12/02/2008 5:09:13 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Save America......... put out lots of waferin)
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To: livius
” we ramped up security to the point where it is inconvenient and uncomfortable for our own citizens,”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>......................
how about loss of constitutional freedom added to that list.
seems the WOT is a great way for MORE government control of our lives.
Ever wonder why Sanctuary states were not taken out much
earlier in this WOT??
just asking.
18 posted on 12/02/2008 5:34:15 AM PST by shadowgovernment (From the Ashes of a Republican rout will raise a Conservative Party)
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To: livius

“Islamic grievances”
The only grievance they have is, they were not able to kill more people. I think our government will take care of that asap.


19 posted on 12/02/2008 6:57:07 AM PST by Hari prasad (Pakissatan- Exporters of the finest terrorists since 1947)
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To: bert

So you think that this is an argument between Pakistani Muslims and the Saudis? That doesn’t sound very likely to me. For one thing, it’s fairly well known that a lot of Saudi money reaches Afghanistan and the “tribal areas” and has even founded some of these mosques that are training the Paki Islamists. I can’t imagine they’d be training them to go and try to take Mecca from the Saudis.


20 posted on 12/02/2008 7:07:34 AM PST by livius
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