Not quite yet, but close.
For hyperinflation to happen, they have to find a way for all those “computer dollars” they gave to the banks to be turned into physical paper dollars, in the publics hands.
That’s why they’re moaning like an old whore over the fact that they can’t stimulate borrowing. People taking on debt is where they convert the fake stuff into the fiat stuff.
But people are debt saturated. And the confidence level is near zero.
Intermission (before the real bottom)
I'm convinced now that I'm not the only one confused.
But people are debt saturated. And the confidence level is near zero.
Boy are you right. It is not a question of lowering interest rates on cars and high ticket items now. 0% -- So what? 'Will I have a job to pay back the loan at ANY rate?' The banks have got to be wondering the same thing. 'Will we ever get this money we lend back?'
I am an idiot about this stuff - my accountant is an optimist and sees DOW 11,000 this spring. I see destruction of the equity market.
I fell for the Y2K scare, Howard Ruff back in the 70-80's(?). I lean towards doomsday scenarios, so don't trust myself to look at this objectively - but I feel like we are not going to be the same country in about a year. Am I wrong?
the money going to the banks is nowhere near to being inflationary,nevermind hyper. That money is being poured into a massive hole and will take some time yet to fill up.
Exactly. Talk of hyperinflation is way premature. Right now we are more likely in a liquidity trap. Borrowing costs are low, the fed rate is low, the treasury is giving money to lenders, but few in the biz wants to borrow or lend. They are hoarding cash which means they think better deals are on the way - they think deflation is coming.
We should be experiencing broader deflation but so far deflation has only occurred in the select markets. Over the last 10 years most of the inflation has been contained in the stock market and housing market, and that is where the deflation is hitting first. In theory lower commodity prices like oil and steel should result in broader deflation but so far it hasn’t happened in basic goods. Cars, TVs, Stocks & Bonds and Houses are lower, but not much else.
They need to spur borrowing indeed. If they want to do this, they need to employ a bottom up strategy. Giving money to banks and brokerages is a waste because they have run so many scams on each other that nobody in those industries trusts anyone anymore. So the Congress may have to mandate new lending rules for a sort period e.g. backstop consumer credit, home mortgage borrowing, car loans and credit card debt. Not that they should be reckless only that the average person is pretty tapped out and the only way to get them some cash is to find legitimate ways to lend to the little guy and the small business.
Who wants to buy when the price next week will be lower? And who wants to make a loan on a house when next year the people will owe more than it's worth?
This one might take a while.