Posted on 01/01/2009 9:40:12 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™ Falls to a New All-Time Low in December
December 30, 2008
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had increased moderately in November, declined to a new all-time low in December. The Index now stands at 38.0 (1985=100), down from 44.7 in November. The Present Situation Index plummeted to 29.4 from 42.3 last month. The Expectations Index decreased to 43.8 from 46.2 in November.
The Consumer Confidence Survey™ is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for December's preliminary results was December 22nd.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The further erosion of the Consumer Confidence Index™ reflects the rapid and steep deterioration of economic conditions that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Present Situation Index is now close to levels last seen in the months following the 1990-91 recession, but is not as low as levels reached during the 1981-82 recession. Declines in the Expectations Index appear to be moderating, but this index continues to hover at historical lows. Both sub-indexes bear careful watching over the next several months to see if they are starting to show signs of approaching a bottom. In the meantime, however, the overall economic outlook remains quite dismal for the first half of 2009, and only a modest recovery is expected in the second half."
Consumers' appraisal of current conditions grew substantially worse in December. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 46.0 percent from 40.6 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 7.7 percent from 10.1 percent last month. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also considerably more negative than a month ago. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 42.0 percent from 37.1 percent in November, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.7 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook was only moderately more pessimistic. Those anticipating business conditions to worsen over the next six months increased to 32.8 percent from 28.3 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve rose to 13.4 percent from 11.5 percent. The outlook for the labor market was also somewhat mixed. The percent of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 41.0 percent from 33.7 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 9.7 percent from 9.2 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes decreased to 12.7 percent from 13.1 percent.
Source: December 2008 Consumer Confidence Survey The Conference Board
The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, January 27, at 10:00 AM ET.
All-time “highs” and “lows” in confidence levels usually signal a reversal in the present trend. So we should view this as a positive sign. The other positive is that the media coverage of the economy is about to undergo a 180-degree turnabout to all positive, all the time, the day their wonderboy boy-wonder takes office.
You betcha. I take it you’ve been around long enough to have seen that pattern, as have I. ;)
Yes I have.
I've also been around long enough to know that whenever governments (and their citizenry) get so far into debt they can't get out, they throw ridiculous sums of money at it that they don't have, thereby debasing the currency so they can get out of debt with funny-munny. This time, it's more massive than anybody's ever seen; so the upshot of the present spending orgy is anybody's guess. My instincts tell me that gold, lead and well-watered farmland are the best recourses.
Just wait till we realize we elected Obama!
Massive tax hikes of all kinds in CA are going to really improve my “confidence” in the economy.
We’re no where close to the bottom. Wait till the Q1 wave of layoffs followed by the 2nd half reseting of Option ARMs & Alt A mortgages for the next 3 years. Consumer confidence is going to drop a lot more. Government (all levels) haven’t even begun to cut spending and many are expanding still. Once that stops—and it has to as our gdp is plummetting—it will get even worse.
Migraine wrote:I think we'll have to wait 3 to 5 years before the propaganda ministry (formerly known as the media) will report good news.
The other positive is that the media coverage of the economy is about to undergo a 180-degree turnabout to all positive, all the time, the day their wonderboy boy-wonder takes office.
For the next few years, they will report on The One "doing everything he can" and "working hard" to turn things around. But for the next few years, the news will be bad, and the reason will be that George W. Bush and the Republicans screwed things up so bad that all the good work of The One, plus Reid and Pelosi are going to take a while to have the full effect.
The Dem's don't want to "waste a crisis" and solve the problem too quickly to push more of their agenda through.
My confidence in this corrupt government is gone...I have no confidence in that corrupt entity. Even surveys suck, they are corrupted, orchestrated and manipulated.
“My instincts tell me that gold, lead and well-watered farmland are the best recourses. “
Funny. I just happen to have all three, LOL! :)
That is what is so intriguing about the future: nobody knows for sure; but well-read folks like to put forth most-likely scenarios. I've been watching them (talking heads) with great big smiles on their faces whenever they speak of His Worship. The same smiles turn somber and grimacing when the news turns to any other topic. So we'll see. Thanks for replying!
The American people KNOW why “consumer confidence” is low,
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2157229/posts
(77% of Americans say the media is over-promoting the negatives).
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