Build us an impregnable missile defense system, and we really could get by with very few nukes indeed. Unfortunately, I doubt that’s a priority.
It will be nearly impossible to build a defense against supersonic cruise missiles. ICBMs, it’s a given. Cruise missiles, big vulnerability.
Remember also that our large population bases are generally near the ocean.
Worldwide something like 80 to 90% of the earth’s populace lives withing 100 miles of an ocean. (I may be off by a bit here, but it’s something close to this)
When one is dealing with MIRV and possibly MARV missiles, which are SPECIFICALLY designed to “evade interception”, to intercept even 95% of incoming RV’s (warheads), would be a BIG accomplishment.
Here is a bit of the reason::
On an “average” “dumb” RV, such as from an SS-18 or such, the RV will be moving at over Mach 25, or over 17.5K mph, once it is released from the “missile payload bus”. What this would basically mean, is that once deployed from the bus—there is VERY little time to intercept the RV. Average time to impact of a MIRV warhead after separation— a few MINUTES!! So—in order to be able to intercept this RV “exo atmospherically” (out of the atmosphere, where it will NOT be TOO devastating if it detonates—there would STILL be an EMP effect though, if it detonates out of the atmosphere..)), one would need to get your interceptor there at LESS than a MINUTE after deployment. IN order to do that—most likely the MDS system would need to be “in orbit”, and also, probably manned. and this is WITHOUT even taking into consideration, “decoys” launched by the payload bus, to make detection more difficult.
When one puts into the mix a MARV warhead, which Russia claims they are deploying on some of their new ICBM’s—it gets MUCH more difficult, as the MARV is “smart” and will do evasive maneuvers to prevent interception. That, coupled with the still extremely short time of TTI, and it is a VERY daunting task indeed, to intercept say, 1500 warheads, launched from 300 missiles with another 1500 decoys to confuse things—ALL in a matter of a few minutes.
The ONLY truly, 100% effective way to intercept ALL RV’s coming into this country, would be to take out the missiles in the BOOST PHASE, as they are launched and attaining coast altitude and attitude and “all in one piece”. The main problem with THAT—is that they are launched from the ENEMY ‘s country— over THEIR land, and boost phase is NOT long, often 3-5 minutes or LESS. Once boost is over—coast phase begins, and then, warhead separation occurs and it is then BIG time trouble to get all of the RV’s—before impact. The total time of impact from launch to impact is often less than 30 minutes.
So—it is a MUCH bigger problem, to intercept say 1500 nuclear warheads coming in, that say, 1 or 2, from some “rogue” nation, where the RV is not well protected, is alone, and with no or few “penetration aids” attached.
NOW—I did NOT say all of this—to say “it can't be done”. I believe it COULD be done, and that is EXACTLY what Reagan was trying to accomplish with SDI. BUT— it would take a LOT of time research and above all—MONEY. Given the current administration—I do NOT think that MDS is ANY sort of priority. All HE needs is the “word” of the enemy and he then believes “peace in our time”.
So did Neville Chamberlain.