Mart Bowen's family systems theory applied in case Obama, says that when the going gets tough he will bug out. Bowen was a psychiatrist who worked with very difficult cases, and over the years developed his "family systems theory". He would treat the family as a while unit, since what he found is that in many if not nearly all cases, the pathological behavior, the dynamic, is a family inheritance.
In Obama's case his Dad and Mom bugged out, and on his Mom's side there appears to be a long history across the generations of the Dad bugging out -- either by just leaving never to return, or via intoxicants.