Obama’s numbers will “drip” down much like Bush post 9/11. Most Americans have absolutely no clue how the economy works, how financial markets work etc etc. The Republicans have always been awful at explaining why it WORKS.
40% are almost always going to vote either GOP or DEMs on either side, so the sheep are really the 20% in the middle that flip around like drunken dolphins in a tank of moonshine.
They viewed the events of last fall as a “financial 9/11” and Obama benefitted from being in the party out of power, the timing, and the age difference between he and McCain (and of course all the other issues about Bush, McCain and the GOP).
So Obama has a lot of capital with those 20%, because they perceive that he inherited a catastrophic event. THEY are going to judge him on what he does now and if it works, not on mistakes of the past. The GOP has not done a good enough job educating the masses on conservative economic prinicples, so it will take congress “failing”. That will be a trickle.
It took the Dems 5 years to drip Bush into a perceived “failure” with the 2006 midterms.
The real question is, will the middle mush judge him in time for 2010 AND will the GOP grow a pair and actually mount a cohesive plan to win in the House?
To me the flashpoint is congress and is Obama “Carter leading to Reagan” or “Clinton leading to a GOP House based party?” I guess he could also be Bush and manage to alienate both sides of his approval rating.
Even a tightening of the House in 2010 is HUGE in regards to policy.