As someone who has been both active duty and National Guard this is my opinion.
Guardsmen won’t go against their own people. You tell them to take the guns away from their family, friends, employers, landlords, etc. Well hell it is just a weekend duty so screw that, they will either refuse to carry out the order or else go AWOL. UCMJ actions has less weight than active duty.
But you can send rural Guard units to urban areas and I think they could justify carrying out the orders as getting the gangbangers under control and you could send urban Guard units to rural areas and they would justify it as disarming the KKK rednecks.
Active duty, a fairly large minority population that would obey the President and would report officers and NCO’s who don’t support Obama. Units without a majority of people loyal to the location they are stationed. Fairly short tour of duties at each post limits strong unity among soldiers. Their careers, housing, food, health care, family support all depends on they remaining on active duty. Finally if we allow gays to serve openly then the liberals will have another way to keep tabs of the loyality of the units to the administration. They will be like the Soviets political officers.
Marines, I say would be the most likely active duty force to disobey unlawful orders but in the case of a civil war if the administration controls key units of the air force and navy and the army and key supply depots then most likely the Marines and whatever National Guard and active units that join them will lose.
If you have never read a book by Anthony Burgess (author of A Clockwork Orange) called The Wanting Seed, then I highly recommend it. It strikes even closer to home as regards our current situation than does 1984, in my opinion.
When considering a scenario like this, it’s important to remember that along with the breakdown in civil order, will come the breakdown of the American Transport System.
In America Today, ESPECIALLY in the cities, most people RARELY have more than a few days food on hand. When the transport begins to break down, the flow of food STOPS.
Even the big grocer wharehouses only have a few days of food in them, thanks to “Just-In-Time” delivery methods. Even today, when a Big Snow Storm or Hurricane approaches a major city, it’s ENTIRE foodstocks can be wiped out in less than ONE DAY.
And, as we saw witness to in New Orleans, when the food, fuel, water, and Electricity get cut off, the average Democrat Voter will begin to IMMEDIATELY feed on the other Democrat Voters.
When that anarchy begins, on a nationwide scale, It’s GAME OVER for the left. How many of these San Fran and Chicago radicals do you think would survive thier fellow Democrats?
“Marines, I say would be the most likely active duty force to disobey unlawful orders”
They have already been asked the question about shooting American civilians and about a quarter of them said yes, in the
Combat Arms Survey conducted at USMC Base Twentynine Palms