Posted on 03/12/2009 4:08:51 PM PDT by nickcarraway
The collapse in China’s exports last month was even worse than the headline figure suggests, says Mark Williams, an international economist at Capital Economics. Import data give no sign that the economy has bottomed out.
Exports declined by 25.7% on a year-to-year basis and imports by 24.1%.
Relatively mild contractions in exports over the previous three months had suggested China’s exporters were proving more resilient than their regional counterparts.
However, he says, the latest figures disprove this theory. After adjusting for the number of working days in each month, exports from China fell by roughly 40% on a yearly basis in February, having been stationary a month before.
Meanwhile, there is no sign of a steadying domestic demand.
Williams says if this continues, the question of whether the government should force the remimbi to weaken, which officials have been playing down, will return.
On the long-term outlook, Williams says China’s prospects for the next year are “pretty weak”. However, he adds, “China will continue to grow, which is more than we can say for most economies in the world.
“Growth will be much slower than in the past. It will take China several years to reach the same growth rates [experienced in the past].”
a 26% drop. wow. lots of unemployed chinese.... I hear Japans exports dropped big too.
All this stimulus stuff is going to be useless without China or Japan to buy it up. And Europe is saying “You people are acting like you just hit the lottery” and don’t think they’ll be buying it either.
Yeah, their GDP itself dropped 12.6% I think! (Japan)
that is a depression isn’t it?
Looks like the mighty stimulus plan ain’t working. WHat a surprise?!!!
Keep it up folks. Refuse to purchase items from China. Also, tell everyone else to do the same.
Somewhere in the past week there was an article in the Chicago Trib about a black family that went out of its way to “buy black”, scouring the country for black businesses to supply every last one of their family’s needs. Would that more American families were like that in a generic, non-race-specific way.
German exports falling, too.
“German industry is ‘war zone’ as recession causes export collapse”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4980270/German-industry-is-war-zone-as-recession-causes-export-collapse.html
“a 26% drop. wow. lots of unemployed chinese.... I hear Japans exports dropped big too.”
They’ll start a war.
Yes, I think 10% is considered depression level.
One month annualized.
That was one month? I thought it was for the quarter?
Oh you mean China, I thought you meant Japan.
You mean we are refusing to buy cheap no good trinkets from China? And that’s a bad thing?
Just wait till we try to float those bonds to raise money for the stimulus.
That number certainly is much higher now.
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