"Our estimates indicate that between 6% and 8.5% of global cigarette consumption is smuggled."
That indicates some places are overly taxing cigarettes. From wiki:
In the UK, many people now illegally import cigarettes, or buy those illegally imported, due to the increasing tax. A packet is less than half the price in some other countries, making illegal importers a large profit, while still providing comparatively very cheap cigarettes.
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In canada alone the black market cigarette business is about 1.6 billion $$. Even if the demand is 1/10 of that in the USA, It would be worth about the same dollar wise. Plenty to sustain the cartels.
I agree that when taxes are too high, black markets flourish. I don't know which outfits run the underground tobacco trade, but if the government continues to raise taxes, then expect violent struggles over the untaxed loot.
None of the above changes the fact that well regulated and reasonably taxed marijuana commerce would deprive the cartels of most of the $8.6 billion they get from it now.
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Booze would be a decent sized black market as well.
Now alcohol is an example of a well regulated and reasonably taxed US market. Do you have any figures for the size of the black market for alcohol in the US?
Any "losses" will just be made up in other markets, like heroine. Like any businessman, if you loose part or all of one market, you find another.
But to think that the government will have "reasonable taxes" on MJ, or coming soon, ANY SIn tax market is absurd. As for the size of the alcohol bootleg market, I don't know. I would imagine it's comparable to the Canadian illegal booze market, adjusted for population of course. Billions probably. And I don't mean home brew, but offshore untaxed "good stuff" smuggled ashore. Check the government BATF web site