If Obama fails to take action, watch for Russia to make a move on the Ukraine. China will get more aggressive toward Taiwan. Iran will openly throw sandals at Obama effigies, and the rest of the world will realize — uh-oh, no more cop on the international beat. North Korea will launch another missile over Japan — pahdon me, another satellite launch will somehow go astray, heading toward Hawaii.
That means one of two things: either the aggressors start winning, or somebody else has to play the international cop — the role the United States has carried for sixty years.
So who do you want to play the world’s cop?
Russia will happily volunteer do it for Europe, since Europe won’t do it for itself. China could squeeze concessions from Japan and South Korea to stop the Norks. And in the Middle East it will either be Israel — which can protect the Arab countries from nuclear attack by Iran — or it will be the mad mullahs of Qom. I would guess that the Israelis will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, with the covert help of Arab Gulf states.
Russia will happily volunteer do it for Europe, since Europe won’t do it for itself.
Europe won't because Europe can't. For decades if not a century, our military, its hardware, and Joe Sixpack's tax dollars, driven by the government's resolve to thwart communism's march, provided for Europe's defense and security. This freed up for social programs the Europeans' billions that would have otherwise gone to defense, and thereby created, fostered, and ensured a dependent, helpless society. It is easy for a government to play Santa Claus when someone else not only provides for its defense but picks up the tab as well. The downside to this becomes apparent when the benevolent police force pulls out or is driven out, leaving behind a bunch of spoiled inacapables with lots of stuff that their neighbors would like to make their own.
China could squeeze concessions from Japan and South Korea to stop the Norks.
Without the oft and popularly maligned junkyard-dog-US covering the front gate and back fence, what is to stop the Chinese from moving on its neighbors? Nothing. China is today in a position to run a protection racket that would make the best of the worst of the glory days mob weep in envy. Worse yet, they have major economic and financial clout, have become the producer and freight handler to not just our nation but the world (conceit to Sandburg duly noted), seem to be having a field day with the world's IT infrastructure, . . . and they have that ever-growing and evolving military.
And in the Middle East it will either be Israel — which can protect the Arab countries from nuclear attack by Iran — or it will be the mad mullahs of Qom. I would guess that the Israelis will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, with the covert help of Arab Gulf states.
One day and no one knows when that will be, Middle Eastern oil will become a non-issue. The world will either replace it with the next big thing, deplete it, or render it unreachable/unusable after AHBL in the region and the place is rendered an uninhabitible deserted wasteland--may Heaven forbid. Remove oil from the equation and what does the ME have left to offer? Technology? Funded by what? Oil revenues? Yes. Take away the oil and the prize that is the ME suddenly becomes bigtime dependent on the world beyond. Everything the ME brings to the table rides on that oil in one way or another. Everything the world beyond the ME has on the table is linked in one way or another to that bet. Look for the one thing that all the above have in common and it is ME oil. Even if a given country does not need the ME's oil for fuel or its petroleum derivatives for industrial products and manufacturing, it still depends directly or otherwise on the wealth that oil generates to keep the wheels of trade and finance rolling.
Like it or not, the USA, China, Russia, and all the rest depend on a secure if not stable ME and its oil. Lest we forget, Israel's existence and security is also tied to that oil and in a big way: just ponder for a moment what happens in the streets of Israel's neighbors the day they no longer have that revenue stream. Radical Iran and its proxies pose a threat to everyone's apple carts. In the case of Iran it is not enough to look at "the cop"; we have to look at the "police force" that is coming together behind the scenes: enter the Chinese, Norks, Rooskies, and a host of other unsavory bit players. Then we have to look at who is most likely to rise to the rank of Chief of Police. Meanwhile, there are two cards face-up in this game: Israel and oil. Iran is the wild card and it's a joker to be sure.
I do not know who will ultimately play the cop, but I will wager that cop's beat will be first and foremost the ME. Whoever polices the area will control the area, and all that goes on there will be will be at his behest and to his benefit. JMO