I would be very interested to see the outcome of June elections in Iran. IRI’s shenanigans, possibly moving a few pegs up & in different directions than during Bush Administration (all 8 years of it), to determine reaction.
Whoever is elected will still be mostly a figurehead. The Supreme Leader and the Assembly of Experts still run the country, i.e., the mullahs. A more moderate face might be desireable so they can continue their nuclear program under the cover of being more moderate and it may help the regime in dealing with the domestic opposition and the sad state of their economy. Iran has a negative population growth rate and a huge brain drain that the IMF deemed the highest in the world among the 90 countries it measured.
BTW, there won’t be an Israeli attack before June elections in Iran, that’s my guess. Anyway, the whole thing is my view of the subject.
It could go either way. In terms of any substantive change in the Iranian nuclear program, the election will have little to no effect. The optics are a different story. If Ahmadinejad is reelected, the Israelis could use it as a pretext to attack. However, a more "moderate" President, might actually make such an attack more difficult. And the Israelis must consider the factor of the sale of Russian missile defense systems to Iran. The longer they wait, the more difficult the attack will be.
If there is an attack by Israel, the US will be blamed regardless, which will have ramifications for our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and our relations with Pakistan. Perhaps, this will force Obama to publicly condemn Israel, the possible action that Biden alluded to prior to the election, i.e., their supporters might not agree with their decision initially but would see that it was the right one in the long run.
Some thoughts as somewhat of an outsider to U.S.-Israel-Middle East Policies:
“Whoever is elected will still be mostly a figurehead.........”
No argument. But, each figurehead will try to deliver his own spiel...
“In terms of any substantive change in the Iranian nuclear program, the election will have little to no effect.”
True, it won’t. I dare say, Iran will become a nuclear power because the West does not seem to have the Will to stop Iran. Best the West (Israel too) seem to want to do is to set IRI back a few or several years in that arena. Helping to foster & facilitate longer term Democratic Leadership & moving away from Theocracy in current Iran would be a much better strategy (an opinion).
“If there is an attack by Israel, the US will be blamed regardless, which....”
Please!! US has been blamed for anything and everything so far, so what’s another blamegame?!
I think the US should really set things in concrete for Iraq and Afghanistan - can the US continue this “we want to stabilize things in Iraq & Afghanistan”? The ramifications for both should have been outlined some 7 years ago; sorry for being critical, but one can’t go into war without knowing & ensuring some solid future projections of the outcome. As some say, every battle or war even is won or lost before it begins.
“Relations” with Pakistan is not the issue per se. Issues are Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Obama may publicly condemn Israel too. On that note, I do not think Obama is a Jimmy Carter. I do not endorse Obama, I am not sure what he has or is planning, but, to me, Obama appears more resolute - that is only my assessment, at this stage.
Honestly, I do think before, U.S. can take some serious “independent” political, military or diplomatic actions, she should try and rid itself of certain investment burdens & financial dependence on certain countries that have been holding back the U.S. all these years or even decades.