[AdmSmith]

Sure. but they are trying to solve this equation:
Choose target so you get max P(target is a Shiit)

If Target is Iraqi then P = 0.60-0.65
if Target is Iranian then P = 0.89
and if Target is Iranian outside a Shiite Mosque then P = 1.00

[nuconvert]

“Thursday’s blast occurred inside a crowded roadside restaurant filled with Iranian pilgrims near Muqdadiya in Diyala province.
The suicide bomber, wearing a belt of explosives, blew himself up at lunch time.”
“The Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization announced on Thursday that the caravans that were hit by the terrorist act had been organized by travel agencies acting under the supervision of the Cultural Heritage, Tourism and Handicrafts Organization. “