Swine Flu Could Cause Pandemic, WHO Says

Washington Post ^ | April 25, 2009 | April 25, 2009

[vae_victus]

I will second your recommendation of The Great Influenza. It is not only a great book on the 1918 flu but the history of medical schools in America. One of the best books I have read.
The government created great breeding grounds in the military camps and refused to quarantine, leading to massive spread of the disease.

[darth]

Bioweapon attack?

[AdmSmith]

Best guess is that it will take a year to develop and manufacture (6 months of development, 6 months of production.) I.E. too late for right now.

That is very pessimistic. This is for ordinary influenza: Within 6 months production periods, almost 250 million of doses are brought annually on market in more than 100 countries. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12686093

I guess that it will take about 3 months to get it on the market. It was a very big problem with Avian flu as it killed the egg cell that was used for production. No such problem here, but it will be a very shaky time until there is sufficient amount of vaccine.

check this http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2237535/posts as well.

[redlegplanner]

I assume you have a couple of assumptions with “Within 6 months production periods, almost 250 million of doses are brought annually on market in more than 100 countries”
1. the production is for an already established strain i.e. H3N2 xxxx
2. Societal systyems (power, water, sewer, transportation, finance etc0re unimpaired...
3. It is a fight to get people to take the shot instead of the reverse

[Canedawg]

From that article you linked, this point was stressed by Dr. Levin on his show last night:

"Not being insured does not mean they don't get medical care. "

[livius]

biggest threat is not mortality, but abseteeism. Estimates run ~40%.

That is true. I was thinking about that today - it's important for people not to panic and completely shut down everything.

[redlegplanner]

Not to be pessimistic, nut no chance. human nature is to coccon up. 75% of medical workers, when polled, say they won’t go to work.

I am a a veteran of the 2d battle of new orleans, so take a dim view of humans acting well. Individual heroes yes, but overall we will all look out for our own.

[AdmSmith]

Yes, technically it is no big deal to produce them in a short time, but there are legal problems, measurements of efficacy etc that has to be addressed.

[livius]

That’s very true. That’s why most of the heroic priests and nuns who went out and visited the sick during various outbreaks of the Plague in Europe many centuries ago are now saints.

[WestCoastGal]

Just getting caught up.

Plus.........New York Health Commissioner says anyone who is feeling sick should stay at home, urges people not to go to school or work when sick.

[Winstons Julia]

I went to an international school and it was required reading...along with “One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich”, “1984”, “Things Fall Apart”, and “Darkness at Noon.”

I didn’t realize I was being so literally prepared for the future.

As I recall, I determined the over-arching message of “The Plague” to be that we MUST choose a side.

[WestCoastGal]

The NYC Health Department is holding a news conference on the swine flu epidemic. Michael van Poppel is covering it live - updates on twitter http://twitter.com/mpoppel

BNO News confirms that two swine flu cases have been confirmed in Kansas. Details to come.

[WestCoastGal]

BULLETIN — WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION DECLARES SWINE FLU EPIDEMIC AN INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY.

[Marie]

This will be the end for most of our already stressed malls and shopping centers.

Our economy is already stressed to the breaking point. A flu epidemic like this is going to tip us over the edge. It’s the perfect storm.

[Protect the Bill of Rights]

Do Muslims get swine flu?

[AdmSmith]

I guessed 3 months to get a vaccine, and it seems to be a good estimate:

Novavax can produce a vaccine from an emergent strain of flu virus in 12 weeks, according to CEO Rahul Singhvi. The company has contacted the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to offer help and is trying to contact the Ministry of Health in Mexico, Singhvi said.

The company uses genetic information and “recombinant, virus-like particle technology” to rapidly engineer a vaccine. Its technology has been proven to work in humans during Phase II trials, Singhvi said, and it might be used in the case of an emergency.

“There is an emergency authorization avenue that is available that would allow us to use the vaccine in an emergency without further testing,” said Singhvi.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100599

[AdmSmith]

Do Muslims get swine flu?

Yes, and vegans as well. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm

[Gatún(CraigIsaMangoTreeLawyer)]

“As I recall, I determined the over-arching message of “The Plague” to be that we MUST choose a side.”

Yes.

I must go back and read it again.

[Protect the Bill of Rights]

I should have out the /s tag at the end of my question. LOL!
But thanks anyway for the answer and the link.

[AdmSmith]

LOL!, but there is more to your question as it would be a psychological effect if Muslims would contract something they think is related to pigs. It would cause a lot of rumors about the “reason” for this as pigs are unclean and it is “haram” even to touch them.

The Egyptian government will probably issue restrictions on pig farms as they fear that the present avian flue outbreak in Egypt would infect pigs that might have other infections by other strains of swine influenza (sure they are infected, but not with the Mexican strain)
http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Egypt/244493

Except a troublesome week ahead.
Note: we should not forget about the old avian flu H5N1!