Vox Day reports anecdotally that steel production/orders is WAY down all across the industrialised world. Steel is so ubiquitous that it’s trending is a much better indicator of economic performance than are the stock markets. What we’re seeing right now in the markets is a bear rally.
The best indicator I have is local. We have many large privately owned trucking companies and they are friends of mine. They tell me that it is almost impossible to get freight lined up out of most large metros. “Deadheading” is killing them. They tell me its worse now than in Jan. and Feb. When freight is not moving that means orders are not being made by retailers. Don’t believe the numbers coming out of the govt. “Liars figure and figures lie”