Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Paladin2; OB1kNOb

In contango the price is lower in the future. I think you got it backwards. Normal backwardation is higher in the future than today’s spot price. That is why contango is unusual because it violates the normal risk/time trade off.


35 posted on 05/15/2009 2:50:13 PM PDT by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies ]


To: 1010RD
"I think you got it backwards"

I'm just quoting (cut and pasting) what I read. Call it whatever you want. It would seem to be an opportunity for temporal disintermediation to the extent that the price difference was above the combined cost of storage and the cost of money.

38 posted on 05/15/2009 2:55:53 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Big Ears + Big Spending --> BigEarMarx, the man behind TOTUS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies ]

To: 1010RD
"Contango is a term used in the futures market to describe an upward sloping forward curve (as in the normal yield curve). Such a forward curve is said to be "in contango" (or sometimes "contangoed"). Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price higher than a nearer future delivery. The opposite market condition to contango is known as backwardation. Contents [hide] * 1 Occurrence * 2 Origin of term * 3 References * 4 Other uses * 5 See also * 6 External links [edit] Occurrence A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity which has a cost of carry. Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold).[citation needed] The contango should not exceed the cost of carry, because producers and consumers can compare the futures contract price against the spot price plus storage, and choose the better one. Arbitrageurs can sell one and buy the other for a risk-free profit too (see rational pricing – futures). If there is a near-term shortage, the price comparison breaks down and contango may be reduced or perhaps even reverse altogether into a state called backwardation. In that state, near prices become higher than far (i.e., future) prices because consumers prefer to have the product sooner rather than later (see convenience yield), and because there are few holders who can make an arbitrage profit by selling the spot and buying back the future. A market that is steeply backwardated — i.e., one where there is a very steep premium for material available for immediate delivery — often indicates a perception of a current shortage in the underlying commodity. By the same token, a market that is deeply in contango may indicate a perception of a current supply surplus in the commodity."

You might want to do more research before calling people out.

You can apologize at any time. I'm waiting.

40 posted on 05/15/2009 3:03:27 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Big Ears + Big Spending --> BigEarMarx, the man behind TOTUS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson