Posted on 06/11/2009 11:50:26 AM PDT by Steelfish
JUNE 11, 2009.
What If Israel Strikes Iran?
The mullahs would retaliate. But things would be much worse if they had the bomb
By JOHN R. BOLTON
Whatever the outcome of Iran's presidential election tomorrow, negotiations will not soon -- if ever -- put an end to its nuclear threat. And given Iran's determination to achieve deliverable nuclear weapons, speculation about a possible Israeli attack on its nuclear program will not only persist but grow.
So what would such an attack look like? Obviously, Israel would need to consider many factors -- such as its timing and scope, Iran's increasing air defenses, the dispersion and hardening of its nuclear facilities, the potential international political costs, and Iran's "unpredictability."
While not as menacingly irrational as North Korea, Iran's politico-military logic hardly compares to our NATO allies. Central to any Israeli decision is Iran's possible response.
Israel's alternative is that Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs reach fruition, leaving its very existence at the whim of its staunchest adversary. Israel has not previously accepted such risks. It destroyed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor being built by North Koreans in 2007.
One major new element in Israel's calculus is the Obama administration's growing distance (especially in contrast to its predecessor).
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
what if the Mullahs are all dead?
I will give them a standing ovation
What? You mean today?
Well, I'd go home from work, eat dinner, spend some time with my family, put my son to bed, spend some time with my wife, go to bed, get up the next morning, eat breakfast, go to work, etc. etc.
I'd probably gain some small measure of satisfaction knowing there is SOME justice in the world; but overall, even the complete and total destruction of Iran would not affect my life much at all.
I would dance a jig of glee....then pray for Israel's safety.
“What If Israel Strikes Iran?”
Obama will retaliate.
Obama will strike Israel and then all the RATS will cheer. And not a peep out of the 78% of Jewish voters that voted for him
Israel simply cannot wait for Iran to get nukes. It would be the 2nd Holocaust. And with Mullah Obama in the White House, Israel cannot rely on the US for support. Israel must take action to protect itself. It is the only rational course.
I’ll go to the local Deli and order a corned beef knish in honor of Israel.
Exactly.
“...Stop! Haman time!”
Pretty good analysis by Bolton, IMHO. I agree with him that the most likely response from Iran wouyld be to attack Israel using Hamas and hezbollah while ranting and threatening the US. I wonder how patient Bibi will be?
It would appear that it is a long standing wish of the US Government that Israel not strike Iran.
With a different spin. The world of jihadists will be considerably smaller and their science will be of the 7th century..
Not exactly nothing. 0 will re-visit Cairo for another speech to burnish his Muslim credentials.
Good post.
Bad situation.
The only thing that protected them last time is the cowardice of Olmert and his squish government in the face of EU pressure, along with the EUs insatiable desire for distance from Israel for domestic reasons. There is simply no reason for Netanyahu to give a damn what the Europeans say.
As for direct Iranian attacks, besides massive retaliation Israel also has the air force to limit that to inaccurate rocket attacks, and even Arrow and Patriot interceptors to cut those in half. Those simply are not effective threats, absent nuclear payloads.
Iran can only retaliate in places that bring in the Americans against them. Everywhere else the Israels can skunk them without breaking a sweat. This is why indirect pressure through Washington is so important to Iran.
America doesn't want to fight Iran in the gulf, at all, and it wants the Israelis to avoid anything that might provoke such a clash. But this is pure bluff on the part of the US. If actually shoved, we can and will shove back. We'd tut-tut the Israelis but the Iranians can't turn that into a strategy if Netanyahu simply refuses to listen to that pressure.
At bottom, Iran is weak and all of its possible actions run through Israeli will to have any effect. If Israel will is there, then Iran is impotent. It just plain loses, whatever it tries.
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