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AntiMullah & Sources Inside Iran ^ | June 13th, 2009 | Alan Peters & Iran Sources

[AdmSmith]

The Rise of the Pasdaran

Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

The purpose of this research is to assess the broad-ranging domestic roles of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), also known as the Pasdaran (Persian for “Guards”), to determine the full scope of its influence over Iran's political culture, economy, and society.

The study analyzed the institution's ideological outreach to the Iranian populace through education, training, and media; its ascendancy in Iran's strategic business sectors; and its role in Iran's factionalized political landscape. The research team paid particular attention to instances in which the IRGC’s ascendancy has provoked dissent from certain population segments, as well as cases in which it has mobilized and broadened its circle of constituents. This monograph concludes by offering potential trajectories for the IRGC’s involvement in Iranian politics, as well as its own institutional evolution, which appears to be increasingly beset by factionalism. In addition, the document outlines a future research agenda for the study of the IRGC that draws comparative insights from analyses of the Pakistani and Chinese militaries.

This research should be of interest to analysts and policymakers concerned with Iranian domestic politics and strategic behavior, as well as those interested, more broadly, in comparative studies of civil-military
relations.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG821.pdf
comments: 153 pages

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks AdmSmith! Message 61 (all).

[dervish]

Let’s keep some perspectiuve here.

From the ‘moderate’ Rafsanjani:

RAFSANJANI SAYS MUSLIMS SHOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPON AGAINST ISRAEL

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2001/dec_2001/rafsanjani_nuke_threats_141201.htm

Please show me where the protesters who are yelling Allahu Akbar are opposed to Iran having nukes.

[dervish]

see #63. We’re on the same page.

[SolidWood]

Please show me where the protesters who are yelling Allahu Akbar are opposed to Iran having nukes.

How am I supposed to prove that?

I remain with my point that if the government wants to fulfill the economic, social and international policies the voters expect, they will have to change their warmongering. I'm maybe an optimist, but don't see it black in black.

[dervish]

I was just pointing out that we agree on good riddance to Rafsanjani.

[PapaBear3625]

Interesting.

In the old Soviet Union, things were run by an inner circle of the Party called the Nomenklatura, who occupied the key positions, and retained for themselves a high standard of living relative to the rest of the USSR. Iran seems to have its own version, consisting of the upper clergy and the senior members of the Revolutionary Guard.

This unrest follows the collapse in oil prices from 12 months ago, which reduced oil revenues used to support the standard of living of the Iranian inner circle and the thugs they use to keep the rest in line. Faced with declining revenues, they have two main choices: reduce their standards of living, or trim the size of the privileged class. Either choice is likely to be unpalatable.

Mousavi seems to have wanted to trim the size of the control apparatus, disbanding the "morality police" and loosening restrictions (and thus the expense of maintaining the kind of internal force that would be needed to maintain it).

Ahmadinejad, OTOH, is in bed with the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij (who seem to be the ones performing the "morality police" function) and has their support. It could be we are seeing a situation where the Iranian security forces may want to reduce expenses by reducing the number of "inner circle" clerics.

[PapaBear3625]

I’m leaning towards dervish’s position, in that the current conflict may actually be a struggle between factions of the ruling clique, Crips vs Bloods, rather than between Islamists and “reformers who just want to have peace in the world and love and hug everyone”

[PapaBear3625]

Twitter: unconfirmed reports of security forces storming Tehran Univ and arresting hundreds of students.

youtube: Basij invading homes and terrorizing people

[dervish]

It is John Bolton’s position:

“the extremist builds nuclear weapons and announces his intentions to destroy Israel... while the moderate builds nuclear weapons and is smart enough to keep his mouth shut about his intentions to destroy Israel.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoWpaRe7Oww&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fatlasshrugs2000%2Etypepad%2Ecom%2Fatlas%5Fshrugs%2F&feature=player_embedded (at 1:30)

[dr_who]

Knew that was coming, unfortunately. M. Rubin predicted it. Anyone know any english-persian sites that output persian script? It would be fun to send out a few good taunts on Twitter, especially if there are any government snoops using it.

[jeffers]

Mostly plainclothes cracking heads, a few cops.

No military uniforms seen so far.

Pro-govs picking off strays, laying at hospitals, avoiding crowds.

Khameinei is waging guerrilla war, by choice, probably to keep as low a profile as possible.

Hezbollah won’t want vidoe of their exploits against average Muslims either.

If Mousavi’s crowds focus on taking public broadcast facilities to declare “victory”, Khameinei will have to capitulate or attempt to commit military regulars that may not follow orders, perhaps spectacularly. Unless he is already marshalling green uniforms, any response will take a while, allowing momentum to grow with the protests.

[PapaBear3625]

German article with 70 new photos (click on photo below headline to scroll through the series)

[PapaBear3625]

Picture that proves Iran election rigging

[PapaBear3625]

Iran's regime is turning up the heat: Reuters: Iran prosecutor warns of death penalty for violence:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - An Iranian provincial prosecutor has warned that the "few elements" behind post-election unrest could face the death penalty under Islamic law, an Iranian news agency reported Wednesday.

Mohammadreza Habibi, prosecutor-general in the central province of Isfahan, said these elements were controlled from outside Iran and urged them to stop "criminal activities," Fars News Agency said.

"We warn the few elements controlled by foreigners who try to disrupt domestic security by inciting individuals to destroy and to commit arson that the Islamic penal code for such individuals waging war against God is execution," Habibi said.

"So before they are stricken with the law's anger they should return to the nation's embrace and avoid criminal measures and activities," he said.

[dr_who]

So in other words, the ones who burn tires are executed and the ones who go around KILLING INNOCENT PEOPLE are considered heroes.