When a candidate who has attracted most of his support from the conservative wing of the Republican suddenly departs the scene and the person with the most favorable conservative Republican support is not considered a possible receipient of the fallen candidate’s support, then whatever is speculated is not intellectually honest.
The PEW Report says that Sarah Palin is currently favored by 80% of conservative Republicans and 73% of all Republicans. I think that many Republicans would like these numbers to go away and vanish but folks it ain’t going to happen. Sarah has ‘It’ whatever that is.
Gravitas, Moxie, Cajones, Ovarian Fortitude, etc.
That’s what she’s got.
She sure does, and i love “it”.
Besides slick mitt’s many flip-flops and failures as Gov.,
his worst sin was and is trying to tarnish Sarah and by extension McCain (whom I loath).
Good point. Usually, those numbers tend to go up over the course of a campaign. Obama didn’t start out anywhere near 80% of iberals and 75% of dems approval.
For example as of May of 2007 he was at 58% approval among dems. Heck, in May of 2008 after he already locked up the nomination and enjoyed the most fawning media coverage of any person in history for 18 straight months, he was only at 63% approval among dems.
So 75% approval is a good start. Especially considering all she’s been through and the fact that the media attacked her more than any other politician I can remember. And this in June 2009, 2-3 yrs ahead of when the polls above were taken. You almost never have someone with those numbers that far out. Give her 2+ yrs to prepare and she could well end up being higher. No one had heard of her this time last yr and loko where she is now.
All the things she mentions for Romney(name ID, book, experience, money, etc...)also apply to Palin. Romney’s fundraising was actually disappointing. He raised about 58M over all of 2007, compared to 101M for Obama. For comparison, W raised 68M the year he ran, 1999, and that was a whole 8 years earlier. With inflation, W was 25M+ ahead of Romney. His own money was his real asset.
We’ll need someone who can pull in at least 150M for 2011 if we want a decent chance.
That said, Romney is a formidable contender. He’ll have the beltway establishment behind him. They don’t like Huckabee or Palin, and Pawlenty and the rest are to unknown. Truth be told they’re probably hoping to put Mitt up as the sacrificial lamb to an unbeatable Obama in 2012 so they can come back with Jeb Bush in 2016. If Whitman ends up being Gov in CA that will help. Although conversely he may end up being less popular in MA as they see him basically abandon the state in a naked political play and move to CA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he buys a ranch and starts riding horseback. He wants to be Reagan so badly it’s sad.
But he was their guy in 08 and didn’t deliver. Palin could end up having a big edge in the grass roots and if she has the support of a Rush, Levin(any guy who has the #1 book in the country for 3 straight months is a very big deal), Beck(his show is doing gangbusters and he likes her) and a few others, that will be hugh. Also don’t count out cultivating some of the still angry Clinton supporters. That’s what Greta Van Suteren’s husband was trying to do and I suspect something will end up being done on that front/ So she’ll have a lot of cards to play. She could do very well with the abortion, values, gun rights orgs that are very effective at turnout and building support and very willing to be active.
He’d seemingly have a huge edge in NH. And IA is one of 5 states in the country that has NEVER elected a woman as Gov, Senator, Pres/VP, or even as the primary winner(VT, NV, VA and OR are the others). So the early states don’t neccesarily favor her. But if Romney couldn’t beat Huckabee when he outspent him 10-1 in the state and camped out there for a year, Palin would seem to have an opening since she’ll have way more money and recognition than Huckabee had last year.
Huck would complicate things since he’d split the evangelical and social conservative vote and leave the economic conservatives all for Romney. The best case scenario is Huck decides he’s happy as a talk show host or is talked out of running(promised an important cabinet post?) and she can consolidate the evangelical/values vote and basically combine that with the female vote to win.
But things are still a long ways away. We could find out she’s sleeping with some stud latin lover in Buenos Aires. Nah, no one would be that stupid.