Posted on 07/20/2009 8:09:20 AM PDT by skimbell
Hm. Well, no. The economics of space exploration in general are not at all interesting to private enterprise.
Private enterprise is built on the idea that investors will get a reasonable return on their investment within a reasonable time.
There are sectors of the space business where the time and profit factors are positive: Communucations satellites are an obvious example and, increasingly, so is space-based imaging.
But space exploration on the "going to Mars" model has absolutely no profit potential over a 10-year time span, and probably not even over a 50-100 year time span.
It requires far too much infrastructure, and for manned space that sort of thing is intrinsically extremely costly.
And once you get to Mars.... what is there at Mars that could turn a profit? What could be done or gotten there that cannot be done or gotten more cheaply here?
The simple economic truth is that private enterprise is not going to be at the forefront of solar system space exploration until some entity that is not profit-driven provides the necessary infrastructure. What that means, of course, is that "government" of some sort will have to build it.
Wishful thinking. The United States will not return to the Moon for at least 35-50 years, if ever. We will not go to Mars. Ever
This is assuming democrats complete their attempt at absolute control of the United States and rename us the United Socialist States of Amerika.
That'll probably be Obama's justification for canceling our manned spaceflight program.
Look at reality, though. What private company or consortium is going to spend tens of billions, with no reasonable expectations for a bunch of useless land on Mars, for which there is no reasonable expectation for a "timely" (i.e., under 50 years) return on investment?
There is no way on Earth, that we could engineer ourselves out of a paper bag, let alone go back to the moon or Mars. There are so many rules, regulations, red tape, political payoffs, environment impact, corruption by everyone involved, bribes, cost cutting, that it is impossible to even build a bridge across a creak, let alone go to Mars! American engineering was once the best in the world. But now, to even find engineers who know basic math is a major challenge. And, even if you found them, you couldn’t hire any of them because it wouldn’t be fair to the minority engineer with a D average puffed into an A. Face it, we are not going to be building anything more than more low income housing for the next 100 years.
Forever is a long time. And I did say that a Cold War-like competition with China was the ONLY way that I could foresee us going to Mars. Right now I don't see the competition with China developing along the same lines. The Chinese seem to be much more "indirect" than the Soviets were, so we are being boiled like the proverbial frog.
Dittos, except I wouldn't even give them a spacesuit.
Very good post. I agree with you 100%.
The Voyages of Discovery in the New World weren't done by people with a selfless interest in science, they were done by people looking to get rich, and only later to raise families exempt from old oppressions. We marvel today at the willingness of people to coop themselves and their families up in cramped, dangerous wooden ships and launch themselves over the vastness of the ocean in order to settle the New World. A lot of them didn't make it.
Unfortunately it isn't particularly difficult to imagine what conditions a similar group of people would be fleeing on the Earth. We're creating them now in the nanny state socialist "paradises" from which the only escape may well be the sort of roll of the dice that landed the Mayflower on a far shore. Heinlein certainly thought that would be the motivating factor. He was an optimist.
40 years ago I wanted to believe that even I would be able to walk on Mars and/or the Moon before I was 60 or 70.
Maybe there is some explanation other than our astronauts (NASA) were warned by Aliens working on the Moon not to return to “their”base.
I can think of no other logical explanation as to why we have not returned and have nothing scheduled anytime in the near future then the Alien warning theory.
If there were human colonies on other moons/planets, then there really couldn’t be one big, happy global government, could there????????
If there were human colonies on other moons/planets, then there really couldn’t be one big, happy global government, could there????????
NASA is so engulfed in political social engineering that man would probably be transgendered, anyway.
We might never get to Mars, but our national debt will get there and back in the next fiscal year.
We might never get to Mars, but our national debt will get there and back in the next fiscal year.
Good points, and for years I thought the space race was J F’n Ks attempt to divert attention from growing racial problems in America.
The riots in 1967 showed that it didn’t work.
The Great Society spending of 1968 showed that folks could be bought off, at least for a while.
And now, our cities are in a slow motion riot 24/7.
I’m not sure I agree. I can’t think of a business model that would work either. But I didn’t think up the personal computer and MS Windows either. Take off the shackles and the market will find a way. Maybe some uber billionaire decides to spend 20 Billion to put himself on Mars, and claims a billion acres of land (about 3%). That’s only $20 an acre. And he get’s first choice. That’s way cheaper than our acquisition of Alaska in today’s dollars. Maybe he gets patents on key technologies developed in just getting there that find other uses for a more immediate return. Or he charges $10 per hit from video from the surface. I’m just saying, someone could find a reason to do it.
Doesn’t help that this generation coming up, (at least in my country) may as well be retarded. Yes, they’re that stupid, and that lazy. Not an imagination amongst them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.