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Swine flu could kill hundreds of thousands in U.S. if vaccine fails, CDC says
The Los Angeles Times ^ | July 25, 2009 | Thomas H. Maugh II

Posted on 07/25/2009 8:25:48 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Hundreds of thousands of Americans could die over the next two years if the vaccine and other control measures for the new H1N1 influenza are not effective, and, at the pandemic's peak, as much as 40% of the workforce could be affected, according to new estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That is admittedly a worst-case scenario that the federal agency says it doesn't expect to occur.

But the broad range of potential deaths highlights the unpredictability of flu viruses in general and this swine flu virus in particular because it hasn't behaved the way researchers have expected.

The number of potential deaths is much higher than that usually seen in seasonal flu, which kills an estimated 36,000 Americans a year, and is even higher than the nation's most recent pandemic.

A 2003 CDC study of deaths in the preceding decade showed yearly totals ranging from 17,000 to 52,000. The 1957 pandemic of Asian flu killed 70,000.

The vaccine the CDC is counting on is not expected to be available before the end of September, too late to immunize children before the start of school, where the proximity of children is expected to speed up transmission of the virus.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bhocdc; cdc; disease; doom; flu; flushot; flushots; fluvaccine; h1n1; healthcare; influenza; medicine; outbreak; swineflu; vaccine
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Is it "The Boy Who Cried 'Wolf'" or a realistic scenario? Tens of millions died in 1918, so anything is possible.
1 posted on 07/25/2009 8:25:48 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Don’t thousands die from the flu every year??? already?


2 posted on 07/25/2009 8:26:29 AM PDT by goodnesswins (Abort the Obama Presidency, now!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

oh yeah yeah we’re all petrified


3 posted on 07/25/2009 8:26:52 AM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Translation: We stand to make a lot of money on this scam, so we need to frighten the sheeple into demanding it.
4 posted on 07/25/2009 8:27:27 AM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham (It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from its government -- Thomas Payne)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

....and....we all have to wonder how many people will die from the effects of taking the vaccine....


5 posted on 07/25/2009 8:29:22 AM PDT by B.O. Plenty (Give war a chance...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There's always a new "crisis" flu...
- Swine flu
- Bird flu
- East Nile mosquito flu

What's the next flu crisis?

6 posted on 07/25/2009 8:29:22 AM PDT by newfreep ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." - P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They can take their vaccine and shove it. I’m not going to be willingly vaccinated.


7 posted on 07/25/2009 8:29:31 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Don’t worry. The Swine Flu shot that they are developing WILL KILL some people anyway.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/hscout/2009/07/21/hscout629120.html

TUESDAY, July 21 (HealthDay News) — A high-level U.S. government decision in 1976 to vaccinate 43 million people against swine flu backfired — badly.

Not only did the dreaded outbreak never materialize (illness never spread beyond 240 soldiers stationed at Fort Dix, N.J.) but some 500 Americans who did get vaccinated came down with a rare neurodegenerative condition called Guillain-Barre syndrome, which many experts believe was linked to the shot. Twenty-five of those 500 people died.


8 posted on 07/25/2009 8:29:35 AM PDT by chicagolady (Mexican Elite say: EXPORT Poverty Let the American Taxpayer foot the bill !)
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Never let a crisis go to waste.


10 posted on 07/25/2009 8:29:55 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

RED ALERT! NEW PEOPLE CONTROLS NEEDED TO PROTECT THE POPULATION.
GOVERNMENT WILL USE THE ALLEGED CRISIS TO SCARE PEOPLE INTO COMPLIANCE.

After the nanobots in the flue vaccine take control of our minds, socialism will be very easy!
I just had to throw in a black helicopter! /sarc hehehe


11 posted on 07/25/2009 8:30:45 AM PDT by o_zarkman44 (Obama is the ultimate LIE!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Please enter the appropriate boxcar en route to your local FEMA camp for processing.


12 posted on 07/25/2009 8:31:32 AM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: chicagolady

“neurodegenerative condition called Guillain-Barre syndrome,”

My father came down with Guillain Barre after a flu shot in the 90’s. forced his early retirement.


13 posted on 07/25/2009 8:32:50 AM PDT by o_zarkman44 (Obama is the ultimate LIE!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just another reason to rush into OBAMACARE.


14 posted on 07/25/2009 8:33:02 AM PDT by blam
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here is the real story..

http://dailyweek.com/stories/20090716_flu/flu.html


15 posted on 07/25/2009 8:33:52 AM PDT by ExtremeUnction
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

check this out

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2279142/posts


16 posted on 07/25/2009 8:34:42 AM PDT by Vaquero ("an armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here we go again with the irresponsible scaremongering where the government is supposed to be the only savior. Epidemiologists have declared H1N1 flu a mild strain that doesn’t have severe symptoms months ago. But facts seldom change alarmist agendas.


17 posted on 07/25/2009 8:36:54 AM PDT by Post Toasties (Conservatives allow the guilty to be executed but Lefties insist that the innocent be executed.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

~yawn~
We’re all gonna die. Someday.


18 posted on 07/25/2009 8:37:09 AM PDT by Clara Lou
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To: o_zarkman44

“RED ALERT!”

“Emergency! Emergency! Everyone to get from street!”


19 posted on 07/25/2009 8:37:31 AM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: ExtremeUnction

LOL! “H1N1.1”


20 posted on 07/25/2009 8:38:26 AM PDT by Clara Lou
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To: dfwgator

“Never let a crisis go to waste”

Yup, this is just the beginning of the lead up to a “major” health crisis in this country to start, well lets see, right about the time when the ObeymeDeathCare comes up for vote in the Senate. Synchronize your watches. It is inevitable!


21 posted on 07/25/2009 8:38:56 AM PDT by Batman11 (Chicago, Land of Lincoln who freed the slaves and Land of Obama who enslaved the free.)
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To: cripplecreek

>> They can take their vaccine and shove it. I’m not going to be willingly vaccinated.

The suppository version will be out soon for the recalcitrant ones like you.


22 posted on 07/25/2009 8:39:11 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
BO's CDC is feeding a line of bull. Below is a statement from the WHO.

""The WHO says most H1N1 cases are mild, with many people recovering unaided". "She stressed that the overwhelming majority of patients experienced mild symptoms and made a full recovery within a week, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment."
23 posted on 07/25/2009 8:40:37 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! FairTaxNation.com)
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To: blam

>> Just another reason to rush into OBAMACARE.

Yeah, but the heck of it is, once you have OBAMACARE, you’re NOT going to want to get sick!

Therefore you’d think they’d be downplaying epidemics; that’s the last thing I’d want to have if the gubmint were in charge of my health care.


24 posted on 07/25/2009 8:41:02 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have a feeling that the numbers reported of U.S. citizens having contracted the pig flu are probably understated by maybe up to 50% simply because people who may have been sick with the flu and recovered didn’t even know it was the pig flu......


25 posted on 07/25/2009 8:41:14 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (Who's your Long Legged MacDaddy?)
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To: cripplecreek
They can take their vaccine and shove it. I’m not going to be willingly vaccinated

The last two flu shots I had were in the Air Force 1988 & 89........never, ever sicker in my life.

I will not take one.

26 posted on 07/25/2009 8:44:14 AM PDT by Kakaze (Exterminate Islamofacism and apologize for nothing.....except not doing it sooner!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm growing increasingly leery about BO setting this manufactured crisis up as another means of controlling people. Some states have laws based on the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act that forces people to get vaccinated if the state declares an emergency. More information from this thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2289284/posts.
27 posted on 07/25/2009 8:44:58 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! FairTaxNation.com)
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To: ExtremeUnction

Now that there’s funny. Real funny!


28 posted on 07/25/2009 8:46:37 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The fact is: It is overblown but there will a significant number of deaths but nothing around 100,000 more like the tens of thousands.


29 posted on 07/25/2009 8:47:35 AM PDT by GenY Republican
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To: Man50D

Last night on sportscenter they said that several members of the Texas rangers have tested positive for the swine flu but are expected to play their scheduled games.


30 posted on 07/25/2009 8:47:51 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Man50D
This is one vaccine I'm not taking.

If anyone insists I get the shot, I'll swear I'm allergic to eggs.

sw

31 posted on 07/25/2009 8:48:02 AM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Is it "The Boy Who Cried 'Wolf'" or a realistic scenario? Tens of millions died in 1918, so anything is possible.

I might have had the swine flu already, or maybe it was just a bad burrito. Guess I'll never really know.

32 posted on 07/25/2009 8:49:23 AM PDT by Post Toasties (Conservatives allow the guilty to be executed but Lefties insist that the innocent be executed.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I took it and I'm just fine....aside from a desire to wallow in the mud.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
33 posted on 07/25/2009 8:50:33 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Kakaze; cripplecreek
cripplecreek: "They can take their vaccine and shove it."

kakaze: "I will not take one."

Gentlemen, gentlemen, gentlemen -- now let's be realistic here. If Surgeon General Benjamin says you'll take a flu shot, you'll take a flu shot! (Or suppository, if that's what you prefer.)

Regina has a house call with your name on it, honeychild.


34 posted on 07/25/2009 8:50:33 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Is it "The Boy Who Cried 'Wolf'" or a realistic scenario?

Here's what's real (as far as we can know, now):

1) Influenza A/California/04/2009 is a real, new, human adapted virus, descended from the Influenza A virus which caused the 1918 pandemic.

2) It has the ability to spread very rapidly in human populations. We don't know if this is unusual or not, since the molecular and communications tools to follow spread like this did not exist in 1968, at the time of the last pandemic.

3) Calling this event a pandemic is definitionally correct.

4) So far, this new, pandemic flu strain causes either asymptomatic infection or mild illness in the vast majority of affected people. Although this is definitionally a pandemic, it may not be what most people mean when they use the word.

5) The federal and international responses are inconsistent and not well justified by the known facts (they may of course know other facts that are not public information).

What follows is opinion:

There have been major efforts at formulating response plans for pandemic flu for at least seven or eight years. These plans contain elements of useful interventions, but they also (never let a crisis go to waste) contain political structures which do not now exist, to exercise authority over sovereign nations.

In the third week in April 2009, it was reasonable to be concerned that this might be "the big one". By now, it's clear that this is a "normal" flu pandemic, similar to 1943, 1949, 1957, and 1968 - none of which required political changes in the international system.

There are people at WHO and in the State Department who are dying to "pull the trigger" on a major, new form of international response to this event, but they are inhibited by the facts of the event - the mild or nonexistent illness, the low mortality rate, and public skepticism all are holding them back.

In areas of strong government control (hospitals through OSHA, state health departments through CDC) very strong and probably unjustified responses are either being made or are in the cards.

And that's the way it is.

35 posted on 07/25/2009 8:54:25 AM PDT by Jim Noble (I hope Sarah will start a 2nd party soon)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wonder how much they are going to profit from this vaccine they try to force on everyone.


36 posted on 07/25/2009 8:54:44 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: newfreep

>> What’s the next flu crisis? <<

You forgot SARS!


37 posted on 07/25/2009 8:55:44 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: All

What the Obamabots are posting on the internet:

************************************

AMERICA’S NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY!

It’s official. America and the World are now in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. A World EPIDEMIC with potential catastrophic consequences for ALL of the American people. The first PANDEMIC in 41 years. And WE THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES will have to face this PANDEMIC with the 37th worst quality of healthcare in the developed World.

STAND READY AMERICA TO SEIZE CONTROL OF YOUR NATIONAL HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.

We spend over twice as much of our GDP on healthcare as any other country in the World. And Individual American spend about ten times as much out of pocket on healthcare as any other people in the World. All because of GREED! And the PRIVATE FOR PROFIT healthcare system in America.

And while all this is going on, some members of congress seem mostly concern about how to protect the corporate PROFITS! of our GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT NATIONAL DISGRACE. A PRIVATE FOR PROFIT DISGRACE that is in fact, totally valueless to the public health. And a detriment to national security, public safety, and the public health.

Progressive democrats the Tri-Caucus and others should stand firm in their demand for a robust public option for all Americans, with all of the minimum requirements progressive democrats demanded. If congress can not pass a robust public option with at least 51 votes and all robust minimum requirements, congress should immediately move to scrap healthcare reform and request that President Obama declare a state of NATIONAL HEALTHCARE EMERGENCY! Seizing and replacing all PRIVATE FOR PROFIT health insurance plans with the immediate implementation of National Healthcare for all Americans under the provisions of HR676 (A Single-payer National Healthcare Plan For All).

Coverage can begin immediately through our current medicare system. With immediate expansion through recruitment of displaced workers from the canceled private sector insurance industry. Funding can also begin immediately by substitution of payroll deductions for private insurance plans with payroll deductions for the national healthcare plan. This is what the vast majority of the American people want. And this is what all objective experts unanimously agree would be the best, and most cost effective for the American people and our economy.

In Mexico on average people who received medical care for A-H1N1 (Swine Flu) with in 3 days survived. People who did not receive medical care until 7 days or more died. This has been the same results in the US. But 50 million Americans don’t even have any healthcare coverage. And at least 200 million of you with insurance could not get in to see your private insurance plans doctors in 2 or 3 days, even if your life depended on it. WHICH IT DOES!

If President Obama has to declare a NATIONAL STATE OF EMERGENCY to rescue the American people from our healthcare crisis, he will need all the sustained support you can give him. STICK WITH HIM! He’s doing a brilliant job.

THIS IS THE BIG ONE!

THE BATTLE OF GOOD Vs EVIL!

Join the fight.

Contact congress and your representatives NOW! AND SPREAD THE WORD!

God Bless You

Jacksmith – WORKING CLASS


38 posted on 07/25/2009 8:55:49 AM PDT by JavaJumpy
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To: Man50D

Someone on another thread said “a wounded Marxist is a dangerous Marxist,” and I think that’s something to bear in mind. More people are becoming disenchanted with The One, even some of the people who voted for him, and I think at some point he’s going to feel the need for a good crisis.


39 posted on 07/25/2009 8:56:20 AM PDT by livius
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To: cripplecreek
Last night on sportscenter they said that several members of the Texas rangers have tested positive for the swine flu but are expected to play their scheduled games.

Just think! Hundreds of thousands of spectators inhaling the H1N1 virus. The CDC is putting the Texas Rangers under double secret probation for that.

40 posted on 07/25/2009 8:56:48 AM PDT by Post Toasties (Conservatives allow the guilty to be executed but Lefties insist that the innocent be executed.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

***Tens of millions died in 1918, so anything is possible. ***

No antibiotics to fight the flu caused pneumonia back then.


41 posted on 07/25/2009 8:56:48 AM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (La commedia e' finita!. Now it's serious!)
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To: Nervous Tick
"Can a shot (or tablets) of vitamin D prevent influenza better than a flu shot? There is good reason to believe that it can".

"Doctors in India and Canada give people a once-yearly injection of 600,000 IU of vitamin D (MJA 2005;183:10-12). That would be better, and safer, than having a flu shot. Daily, weekly, or monthly vitamin D tablets work just as well."

"Investigators have completed one double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial that shows vitamin D prevents colds and influenza significantly better (P<0.002) than a placebo pill (Epidemiol Infection 2007;135:1095-6)".

"A large multi-center randomized trial conducted over multiple flu seasons comparing vitamin D to a flu shot can show conclusively which is better, and safer. But given the financial stakes underpinning flu shots, and unpatentable vitamin D, who will fund it?"

"In the meantime, considering what is most likely to be the outcome of such a trial, if it is ever conducted, I recommend that you avoid flu shots and take vitamin D instead".
.................. and other studies
. . Two Russian studies, the only such studies in the world, suggest higher vitamin D levels prevent the immune response flu shots attempt to generate. Dr. Scott Dowell, at the CDC, has known about these two studies for at least five years.

source
http://www.theairdb.com/swine-flu/heatmap.html

42 posted on 07/25/2009 8:58:00 AM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: livius
More people are becoming disenchanted with The One, even some of the people who voted for him, and I think at some point he’s going to feel the need for a good crisis.

He created one the other night in his press conference.
43 posted on 07/25/2009 8:58:32 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! FairTaxNation.com)
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To: livius

And this marxist doesn’t take criticism well.


44 posted on 07/25/2009 9:00:46 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: spectre

All my kidding aside, I’m convinced (as you seem to be) that nutrition and hygiene are far more effective than vaccine, especially for flu. That’s a general statement, and I believe there are exceptions.

I have had maybe one flu shot in my 50+ years, and don’t plan another one any time soon.


45 posted on 07/25/2009 9:01:53 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: cripplecreek

Yes, he’s not only a marxist, but a sociopath, and they can get a little out of control when things don’t go their way.


46 posted on 07/25/2009 9:02:02 AM PDT by livius
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To: Man50D

Well, he did create a little crisis for himself, but I mean he’s going to need a crisis (real or phoney) big enough to let him get rid of any pretense of having three branches of government and living under the rule of law. Something like an epidemic, an attack, etc.

I think the mask is beginning to slip and we’re seeing that snarling face which is just behind it. If he suffers a few more setbacks or even becomes much more unpopular, I think he’s going to feel he’s got to do something about it, and he’ll stage a crisis to do it.


47 posted on 07/25/2009 9:05:59 AM PDT by livius
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To: All

The Administration and CDC can only cry “wolf” for so long on each and every crisis that threatens the extinction of our great nation. Where’s the great Earl Pitts from Cincinnati when you need him? “wake up Uhmerika!”


48 posted on 07/25/2009 9:06:43 AM PDT by jblann1
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To: spectre

Thanks for posting. It’s a good reminder to get tested for Vitamin D deficiency, especially if you live in the Great Lakes.


49 posted on 07/25/2009 9:07:41 AM PDT by JavaJumpy
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To: Kakaze

My best friend is an RN, retired early now due to a chronic illness. She did plenty of ER and critical care rotations and said that the number of people hospitalized for flu vaccine reactions always way outnumbered those hospitalized for the flu.

I have never had a flu shot and even before I heard that little anecdotal statistic, I had decided I will never get one. I don’t know, maybe it’s me, but there’s something about getting a shot that will probably make you sick but MIGHT ward off the right flu strain that makes very little sense.


50 posted on 07/25/2009 9:07:52 AM PDT by agrace
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