The regime's biggest opponents are the productive middle class who keep the economy rolling.
The regime's big supporters are the rural poor, the recipients of Islamic welfare via the Islamic zakat tax. The Basiji are mainly recruited from the poor (think ACORN with weapons).
When the conflict finally turns into civil war, it will not be pretty. I think the conflict is inevitable, and will occur when the middle class finally does an "Atlas Shrugs" and acts to deprive the regime of the funds needed to buy the support of the poor.
Amadinijhad is already helping the cause:
“# Just before the election Ahmadinejad increased government pensioners’ checks. He got their vote. After the election, he reduced the checks. Pensioners must’ve thought they’d been played for Louisiana constituents. Their checks are quivering.
# Ahmadinejad is threatening to fire ministers, ministers are refusing to attend meetings, and some are walking out of the cabinet entirely. Most of this is symbolic. Next week Ahmadinejad is inaugurated for his second term, at which point he’ll have to submit his new list of ministers to Parliament for confirmation. The clashes are making him appear even weaker than he already was.”
;o)